Jump to content



Photo

Wave count from 1784, for entertainment only....LOL


  • Please log in to reply
2 replies to this topic

#1 LarryT

LarryT

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,066 posts

Posted 20 September 2017 - 03:04 PM

For the entertainment of everyone only. here is my worthless opinion of the long term wave count in approximate years due to the chart I am using is really compressed from 1800 to 2000.

 

According to records from the English the beginning of economic activity in America started in 1784. The first wave advanced from 1784 to the early 1800's. Growth slowed in wave two until around 1815 advancing solidly wave three until around 1835. A slowing for wave four lasted until around 1845 advancing wave five until around 1853 or so. That completed the FIRST PRIMARY five waves of advancing and we had a civil war for a PRIMARY wave TWO until around 1860's. The wave THREE then advanced into the 1966 high. Wave FOUR bottomed at the 1982 low alternating with the fast steep drop civil war wave TWO. The PRIMARY wave FIVE breaks down to 1982 low 1987 W-1 high and late 1987 W-2 low. The W-3 from the 1987 low to the 2000 high. The W-4 from 2000 to the 2009 low W-5 in progress. The minimum wave pattern for W-5 has already occurred however FIVE waves are very unreliable and can advance a lot more than you think.

All that said from here following the SP-1500 stock charts model for clues. The previous wave 4 low and wave 1 highs are now the key supports 2407 to 2405 the first indication the PRIMARY FIVE waves up from 1784 have completed. That said the more bullish outcome is W-5 is extending off the 4-13-2017 2329 area low toward SP-500 level at 2700 area. The key Fibonacci level is at 2612 so there it is. 

 

LT...d:^)


"If you are going to be dumb you gotta be tough"

Twitter site

d:^)

#2 kssmibotm

kssmibotm

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 653 posts

Posted 20 September 2017 - 06:57 PM

I appreciate you sharing your long term wave count. The one big issue I have with your count is the Great Depression occurred during a Primary Wave 3.  I am no ewave expert, but that defies all definitions of wave 3 behavior that I have ever seen.



People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.

#3 LarryT

LarryT

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,066 posts

Posted 20 September 2017 - 07:57 PM

I appreciate you sharing your long term wave count. The one big issue I have with your count is the Great Depression occurred during a Primary Wave 3.  I am no ewave expert, but that defies all definitions of wave 3 behavior that I have ever seen.

The time period of the depression was a wave 4 triangle and reality is if it were not for food stamps, unemployment insurance and rent subsidy and utility subsidy we are in a much greater great depression since 1999 than the 1930's. For about 70% of the 1930's population it was not as bad as it would be now without all the Govt. assistance. 


"If you are going to be dumb you gotta be tough"

Twitter site

d:^)