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The Ord Oracle 8/5/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 05 August 2004 - 08:26 AM

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July 22 interview with Ike Iossif :http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm

*Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the "Stock and Commodities Magazine".
"Timer Digest" has "The Ord Oracle" ranked #3 for the three month time frame for the S&P ending 6/21.

For 30 to 90 days horizon: Looking for buy signal near the 1060 range on S&P.Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Looking for buy signal.

We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.

What to expect now:


The Market appears to be "Backing and Filling" for the short term. To get a valid signal near term on the S&P, we would like for the S&P to trade below the previous low of May 10 near the 1075 level. If volume is heavier then the May low then that will imply the decline will continue. If volume comes in lighter then the May low then that will generate a bullish signal. At the Mid May low the McClellan Oscillator reached minus -366 and is the type of reading found a major lows. Also the McClellan Summation index reached below -1500 at the Mid May low and according to "Patterns For Profit" by Sherman McClellan, this is where major bottoms form on the Summation index. The current decline that is attempting to test the May low is the re-test phase. For the volume studies to remain bullish the re-test of the Mid May low should have lighter volume and that is what we are looking for. We have included graphs of S&P and Summation index (Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). You can see off of the May low the Summation exceeded the April high but the S&P failed to exceed the April high. This shows internal strength in the market and a bullish divergence. But again, we would like to see the S&P to break the May low near the 1075 level on lighter volume to set up a bullish intermediate term signal. If the S&P bounce from here, there is strong resistance at the 1115 level and most likely turn back the market near term.

Nasdaq Composite:

On Monday's commentary, we said, "On a monthly chart the Nasdaq penetrated the March and May low in July. The Nasdaq closed below the March low on lighter volume and implies the market can move lower but because the volume was lighter, it implies a false break to the downside and a bullish sign. The Nasdaq penetrated the May low in July and then closed above the May low but on increased volume and implies that the July low (1829 area) should be tested again before a bullish signal get triggered." Monday's commentary is still in force and no need to make changes for the moment.

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GOLD Market:


September is the strongest month of the year for gold issue performance. BGO, CBJ, GSS and NXG all have buy signals on the monthly charts. PMU is the only one not on a monthly buy signal but it's setting on it's lows. Patience is needed. The Next rally phase looks to be a Elliott "5th" wave and is usually the most powerful and should take the XAU to over 150.

We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ is on a monthly buy signal from the May low. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG has support at 1.35. NXG is on a buy signal on the monthly chart that was triggered in May. We doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Long PMU at average 1.12. Support on PMU comes in at .58. PMU hit a low at .57 and may have marked the bottom. The strongest gold issues by our studies appear to be CBJ and NXG.

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The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previous intermediate term lows has occurred. Today's close came in at -11 and has turned down the Summation index and a bearish short term sign.

The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed today at .53. This indicator is neutral.

“Five day ARMS” indicator is at 6.14. This indicator is bearish.

Conclusion: Target on S&P near the 1060 level for a potential intermediate term bottom.

Longer Term Trend: Starting to look more bullish but still neutral. May get longer term buy signal near 1060 on S&P.

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