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Commercial Paper Said "BUY!"


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 01:24 PM

The Financial Commercial Paper was actually commanding a NEGATIVE premium to the non-Financial Commercial Paper, as reported last night.

 

When you see that, you buy weakness.

 

:)

 

Nobody in the know is worried about any kind of systemic risk right now.

 


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#2 Iblayz

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 01:47 PM

ES uptrend line off of the 8/29 low probably commands yet another retest. On the current bar that sits at 2508.35 and will end the day right at 2508.75. They have already fought (for several days) over another broken uptrend line off of the 5/18 low. That one current sits at 2512.34 and will end the day right at 2512.5. For a hint as to what might happen note that the corresponding trendline from the cash market drawn through the same intraday bottoms (from 5/18) has already been recaptured (cash market low was higher). This has been advertised for days. Nasdaq/NDX in sustained correction and SPX cash refusing to go down while internals blast higher. Is a turnaround in order? Yes. Will it happen pretty soon? My opinion is yes. Do I think that it happens today? No.

#3 dowdeva

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 02:09 PM

Can you explain what you mean by that, Mark?

 

Thanks in advance.



#4 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:52 PM

Can you explain what you mean by that, Mark?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Purchasers of Financial CP typically demand a higher rate of return than purchasers of non-Financial CP. This is, ostensibly (and anecdotally) to compensate them for risks that non-Financial companies don't have (like massive leverage, derivatives, and counter-party risk). When the differential is quite high, there's possible trouble on the horizon. The people who lend lots of ST money pay very close attention to conditions "on the ground" so to speak. Right now, they demand less yield from Financial paper than from non-Financial paper.

Take a look back just prior to the Financial Crisis.

CommercialPaperFredLT12-19-16.gif


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#5 dowdeva

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:08 PM

Thank you, Mark! Also, Iblayz, for your input.



#6 Iblayz

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:18 PM

Thank you, Mark! Also, Iblayz, for your input.

 

 

You are welcome dowdeva. Here is an update on my short term signals that really amount to more of the same.

 

QQQ – Buy signal generated on today’s close.

NDX –  Buy signal generated on today’s close. That’s right……today. And it would take quite a move down tomorrow to negate the signal.

Nasdaq – Lower midrange cross to green on today’s close. Close to what I define as a buy signal. All things considered (like the above two) probably will function similar to a buy signal.

SPX – Signal line has been red for seven days and the sell signal was generated at a very high level….so high as to make it unreliable from my experience. In those seven days the SPX cash index has GAINED 3.17 points. There is NO other way to spin this than it is bullish.        

OEX – Red seven of the last eight trading days. Sell signal generated at a very high level much like its cousin the SPX. Has lost only 2.79 points since the last green day. Once again, there is no other spin available……see SPX comment.

SOX – Red for the last six days. And, even after some hard selling, the SOX has GAINED 4.4 points since its last green day (although it did finish yesterday down over 22 from the same point.

RUT – Only two Red days out of the last twelve. An incredible run of thirteen straight days with my baseline closing above 800. Today closed just a hair below 927……a number in an area that tends to limit short term upside AND downside as the move is digested.

NYA – Red for eight consecutive days. UP 77.52 points during those eight days. Only One way to spin that

DOW – Five straight days Red. Up 71.88 points since the last green day. Once again, only ONE way to spin that.

Wilshire 5000 – Red five straight days and seven of the last eight. UP 64.71 points since the last red day. Getting to be a broken record…..isn’t it (regarding the spin).

BKX – Red three straight days. Up 1.51 points since the last green day. Bullish again.

 

A lot of the crosses from green to red were at very high levels. Most were at levels that make it unreliable to call them legitimate sell signals (from my experience).



#7 Iblayz

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:25 PM

In addition there were five sectors within the SPX that finished RED today. Two of them were just barely red. The largest loser? That would be Utilities. The third largest loser? That would be Consumer Staples. Is that what you would expect to see at a top? Selah. 


Edited by Iblayz, 27 September 2017 - 11:26 PM.


#8 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 08:17 AM

Good stuff!


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#9 Iblayz

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 08:38 AM

This is what I said on August 30th via PM to another member of this board.

 

 

Sent 30 August 2017 - 03:01 PM

Just got filled a few minutes ago. I have been out most of the morning working of my sprinkler system. Now that I look at my work again and think about it....I take back what I said about the 31st.......tomorrow. I used my chart package to do something that I had been doing manually. I didn't think it through like I should have. So in going back to that chart and using it the way that I meant it.........there is no hit on tomorrow for a new high......although I can't rule it out. Using my methodology and assuming that the low of August 21st holds, that setup would predict new highs into September 28th......quite a ways off.

 

 

So it might be clear what I am expecting today. Either an intraday high or a run into the close. Either way I expect a reaction. I can, however, easily.......and I mean easily.......make the case for more upside. See above for example. So I will watch closely for a sign that any attempt to sell it will be bought OR that I can expect a failure of any attempt to sell it. Note: it has been a while now since any serious gap on the daily chart has been maintained for more than a few days. On each occasion, they had to go back and fill the gap in order to get those on board who were left behind. So it seems they can get away with that stuff early in a run. It is not so easy to do with a stretched and mature run. As any eye can see current gap sits at 2467.11 cash.