24 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

This market shows no worry as the FG meter is at extremely greed level.  The true reason that this market stopped here is because of a strong resistance at this level and historically over valued and overbought stocks:

http://money.cnn.com...fear-and-greed/

Edited by redfoliage2, 11 October 2017 - 10:28 AM.

[da_cheif]

This market shows no worry as the FG meter is at extremely greed level.  The true reason that this market stopped here is because of a strong resistance at this level and historically over valued and overbought:

http://money.cnn.com...fear-and-greed/

what else would one expect during the epicenter of primary wave 3 up....a once in a lifetime event eh

[Data]

They use 10, 14, and 21 day indicators in the meter.   It is really nothing more than a composite.  It doesn't dictate major moves.  Those indicators can reset in a couple of weeks with minor change in the indices.

[fib_1618]

They use 10, 14, and 21 day indicators in the meter.   It is really nothing more than a composite.  It doesn't dictate major moves.  Those indicators can reset in a couple of weeks with minor change in the indices.

 

Agreed...the "meter" is a piece of garbage for trading.

 

Fib

[NAV]

This market shows no worry as the FG meter is at extremely greed level.  The true reason that this market stopped here is because of a strong resistance at this level and historically over valued and overbought stocks:

http://money.cnn.com...fear-and-greed/

 

And you are worrying about the meter, overbought etc. That's the wall of worry my friend 

[NAV]

Problem with Oscillators and Divergences is that they can be reset. An OB condition on hourly or daily can be easily relieved with a 2-5 days correction. And that correction in good trending markets happen to be 1-2% shallow moves generally. Once or twice a year you get these 5% deep drops. Question is whether you are willing to pick every OB condition in the market throughout the year to catch  one or two of those fat tails ?

 

This market has not had a 5% correction in more than 1 year and a 10% correction in more than 2 years. Anybody trying to bet on those outcomes have been taken to the cleaners.

Edited by NAV, 11 October 2017 - 11:19 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

While I don't think we can use this data as any kind of fine tuned timing tool, it still gives us a feel for the speculative mood.

No additional Bulls AT ALL for days.

 

https://www.investin...-500-scoreboard

 

[CLK]

Problem with Oscillators and Divergences is that they can be reset. An OB condition on hourly or daily can be easily relieved with a 2-5 days correction. And that correction in good trending markets happen to be 1-2% shallow moves generally. Once or twice a year you get these 5% deep drops. Question is whether you are willing to pick every OB condition in the market throughout the year to catch  one or two of those fat tails ?

 

This market has not had a 5% correction in more than 1 year and a 10% correction in more than 2 years. Anybody trying to bet on those outcomes have been taken to the cleaners.

 

 

 

The fact that people think this will continue after this long seems like complacency to me. Every time a pattern is repeated multiple times it gets believed so as to continue, and that is usually when it ends. Are we up 20 points today or something ?

Edited by CLK, 11 October 2017 - 04:17 PM.

[JamesE]

Well, I for one hope it continues... pushed half my chips into EFA today. 😓

[NAV]

 

 

The fact that people think this will continue after this long seems like complacency to me. Every time a pattern is repeated multiple times it gets believed so as to continue, and that is usually when it ends. Are we up 20 points today or something ?

 

That is precisely how you approach markets. You have to believe that every pattern that repeats will work. Most will work. One at the trend turn will fail. But if you start predicting which ones will work and which ones don't, then you are double guessing your system and lose out on many winning trades. 

 

And it's quite silly to expect markets to rally everyday or rally 20 points everyday. You have to patiently wait it out.

 

And i have watched this for years. At bottoms, folks are scared to buy as they think the trend has turned down. Then it rallies a bit and and they call it dead cat bounce. Then there is a range expansion and most beleive it's too late to jump in. Then it's overbought and too risky to buy. There is no safe and risk-free point in markets to buy.

Edited by NAV, 11 October 2017 - 08:59 PM.