29 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

NAV and Fib, it's obvious that you've given this a great deal of thought.  Thanks for your responses!. 

[claire]

Thank you all:  Nav, Fib, and Geo, for your explanations.

[Data]

I'm also wondering if the price levels affect how to interpret these MACD readings.  Given the relatively high price readings currently in both indices, on a percentage basis an absolute divergence in the 5 and 34 SMA's now might be less in percentage terms than was the case in the 1990's.  In April 1999 when the SPX was at@ 1400 the divergence at about 135 in the 5/34 was slightly less than it was in March of this year with the SPX at 2400+ and the divergence was at 141, so percentage wise it is less now.  As you can see even the 5/34/5 MACD might not be a rock solid tool to use in answering the question on how to distinguish between large degree Wave 3 and Wave 5's and analysis uncertainty remains. Hence the search for another technical tool.

 

Fortunately, if one is a trader, this kind of question, given the long time frames involved, is not exceedingly pertinent.

The cumulative monthly MACD line doesn't seem to mean anything. It flatlined during the 80's and most of the 90's. 

 

Any MACD will sometimes fail in trends if the trend's slope is too constant.  Then both the short- and long-term moving averages are moving at the same rate, and you get a lot of whipsaws in signals. The two moving averages become redundant, and you're better going to a regular moving average system. You see the Profitunity MACD hasn't been working on the weekly timeframe most of this year.  It's been awhile since I've read Trading Chaos, but I don't recall it being applied on more than the daily time frame.

 

He always says 3 of 3 wave, or whatever.   That is his normal spiel.

Edited by Data, 12 October 2017 - 03:00 PM.

[CLK]

Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used. It's all an optical hindsight illusion.

You can get a few right but on average you will go broke every time. Markets change too much for something to work

often enough to keep from going broke. I have been using front run momentum technicals for 14 years and it just does not work,

I don't care what you are using. Only internals I trust is NYAD divergence at secular tops, other than that, forget NYMO,

NYSI, et al. Just trade price renko and same position size over and over and expect to be lucky to make 50% per year.

[da_cheif]

Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used. It's all an optical hindsight illusion.

You can get a few right but on average you will go broke every time. Markets change too much for something to work

often enough to keep from going broke. I have been using front run momentum technicals for 14 years and it just does not work,

I don't care what you are using. Only internals I trust is NYAD divergence at secular tops, other than that, forget NYMO,

NYSI, et al. Just trade price renko and same position size over and over and expect to be lucky to make 50% per year.

>Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used.<....oh really

[da_cheif]

 

I'm also wondering if the price levels affect how to interpret these MACD readings.  Given the relatively high price readings currently in both indices, on a percentage basis an absolute divergence in the 5 and 34 SMA's now might be less in percentage terms than was the case in the 1990's.  In April 1999 when the SPX was at@ 1400 the divergence at about 135 in the 5/34 was slightly less than it was in March of this year with the SPX at 2400+ and the divergence was at 141, so percentage wise it is less now.  As you can see even the 5/34/5 MACD might not be a rock solid tool to use in answering the question on how to distinguish between large degree Wave 3 and Wave 5's and analysis uncertainty remains. Hence the search for another technical tool.

 

Fortunately, if one is a trader, this kind of question, given the long time frames involved, is not exceedingly pertinent.

The cumulative monthly MACD line doesn't seem to mean anything. It flatlined during the 80's and most of the 90's. 

 

Any MACD will sometimes fail in trends if the trend's slope is too constant.  Then both the short- and long-term moving averages are moving at the same rate, and you get a lot of whipsaws in signals. The two moving averages become redundant, and you're better going to a regular moving average system. You see the Profitunity MACD hasn't been working on the weekly timeframe most of this year.  It's been awhile since I've read Trading Chaos, but I don't recall it being applied on more than the daily time frame.

 

He always says 3 of 3 wave, or whatever.   That is his normal spiel.

 

>normal spiel<.....so 16000 pts up is chopped liver........????   and my spiel never wavered...whilst crash calls was the normal spiel here.....sad

[fib_1618]

Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used. It's all an optical hindsight illusion.

You can get a few right but on average you will go broke every time. Markets change too much for something to work

often enough to keep from going broke. I have been using front run momentum technicals for 14 years and it just does not work,

I don't care what you are using. Only internals I trust is NYAD divergence at secular tops, other than that, forget NYMO,

NYSI, et al. Just trade price renko and same position size over and over and expect to be lucky to make 50% per year.

 

Just because you haven't figured out how to use an indicator, doesn't mean it doesn't work.

 

It's sort of like saying that a SUV was speeding and ran over someone instead of blaming the driver of the vehicle.

 

Everything works...it's just the person using the tool that hasn't learned how to use it effectively.

 

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 12 October 2017 - 05:58 PM.

[diogenes227]

 

Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used. It's all an optical hindsight illusion.

You can get a few right but on average you will go broke every time. Markets change too much for something to work

often enough to keep from going broke. I have been using front run momentum technicals for 14 years and it just does not work,

I don't care what you are using. Only internals I trust is NYAD divergence at secular tops, other than that, forget NYMO,

NYSI, et al. Just trade price renko and same position size over and over and expect to be lucky to make 50% per year.

 

Just because you haven't figured out how to use an indicator, doesn't mean it doesn't work.

 

It's sort of like saying that a SUV was speeding and ran over someone instead of blaming the driver of the vehicle.

 

Everything works...it's just the person using the tool that hasn't learned how to use it effectively.

 

Fib

 

 

 

This reminds me of a time years and years ago when I read a review in Stocks and Commodities Magazine of Jack Schwager's book "Market Wizards."  The reviewer, with tongue parked firmly in cheek, said that everyone who reads books like Schwager's Q&A interviews with great traders and investors are always looking for "THE SECRET".

 

And once again the Market Wizards did not reveal "THE SECRET". So disappointing!  All those guys ever talk about, the reviewer said, is "persistent, discipline and experience" and never about "THE SECRET."

[CLK]

 

Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used. It's all an optical hindsight illusion.

You can get a few right but on average you will go broke every time. Markets change too much for something to work

often enough to keep from going broke. I have been using front run momentum technicals for 14 years and it just does not work,

I don't care what you are using. Only internals I trust is NYAD divergence at secular tops, other than that, forget NYMO,

NYSI, et al. Just trade price renko and same position size over and over and expect to be lucky to make 50% per year.

 

Just because you haven't figured out how to use an indicator, doesn't mean it doesn't work.

 

It's sort of like saying that a SUV was speeding and ran over someone instead of blaming the driver of the vehicle.

 

Everything works...it's just the person using the tool that hasn't learned how to use it effectively.

 

Fib

 

 

There are very few on this board that buy options, no one is profitable in them. You have to be absolutely perfect with timing and really

only works with hit and run, which means you have to front run and be out in a day or two, any consolidation and you are done. I know how to use indicators, but indicators don't tell you the market is about to go sideways for a week. If I'm trading ETFs I don't have to worry about such things and really all I need is to follow price and not jump too soon because some indicator is diverging. Choppy markets are a real problem for price following but not near as much as is with options. Problem with ETFs is you have to have a substantial account size and you are dealing with three day settlement and it will take years to make good money, not weeks or months.

Edited by CLK, 12 October 2017 - 07:20 PM.

[da_cheif]

ive made huge bux buying out of the money leaps call options on individual stocks.......look out 2 years at least