Predicting market movements is impossible no matter what method is used. It's all an optical hindsight illusion.
You can get a few right but on average you will go broke every time. Markets change too much for something to work
often enough to keep from going broke. I have been using front run momentum technicals for 14 years and it just does not work,
I don't care what you are using. Only internals I trust is NYAD divergence at secular tops, other than that, forget NYMO,
NYSI, et al. Just trade price renko and same position size over and over and expect to be lucky to make 50% per year.
Just because you haven't figured out how to use an indicator, doesn't mean it doesn't work.
It's sort of like saying that a SUV was speeding and ran over someone instead of blaming the driver of the vehicle.
Everything works...it's just the person using the tool that hasn't learned how to use it effectively.
This reminds me of a time years and years ago when I read a review in Stocks and Commodities Magazine of Jack Schwager's book "Market Wizards." The reviewer, with tongue parked firmly in cheek, said that everyone who reads books like Schwager's Q&A interviews with great traders and investors are always looking for "THE SECRET".
And once again the Market Wizards did not reveal "THE SECRET". So disappointing! All those guys ever talk about, the reviewer said, is "persistent, discipline and experience" and never about "THE SECRET."
Well...I've learned that there really isn't any secrets in this business which is why I always smile when I see someone post something as being "proprietary". With analytical tools it's really quite easy to be successful, but you first have to know how the indicator math is constructed (what it measures), and then you have to apply this equation properly. For some, this comes easy to do. For others, it's bit more difficult as you have to put in your time in working with the tool to discover any nuances it might provide to you. From that, you either add or subtract those tools from your "bag of tricks" in an effort to find those that are complimentary...both to each other and to the time scale you wish to trade.
So...I guess..."the secret" comes down to both consistency and to trading discipline that you use with said tools to make your trading judgements (executions) on when to buy, when to sell, when to hold, and above all else, when to go to cash. Products (whether they be options, ETF's or futures) or the time perimeters you're comfortable with don't really matter as long as you stay with this secret formula in making your money always working for you and not the other way around.
Edited by fib_1618, 12 October 2017 - 08:15 PM.