8 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I was positioned correctly for the up-move. The gap threw me out of the position. My system being a trending system does not catch "V" reversals. Now they will gap up again and give a buy tomorrow. Back until a couple of years, when the market gapped against an uptrend, the first 5-min candle low would hold. When too many figured that out, it stopped working. But the first 15-min candle low would still hold. Now even that does not work reliably. It's all mostly due to algos. On a gap-down day, below the first 5-min or 15-min candle, it's a gold mine of STOPS. The Algos can smell that. Any place there are STOPS, the Algos can smell it. What used to be the floor traders' inside info, is now discovered by the Algos. I constantly keep working on making my STOPS more smarter.

 

Today the first hourly candle low held. But waiting for the hourly candle to complete can be expensive especially when the gap is large and it's a gap and go day. Once the hourly candle low held and the market started moving higher, i knew i was whipsawed. But being a system trader had to watch helplessly for the next signal. How does it feel getting stopped out 10 points below and forced to buy 10 points above.  That's the dilemma i will face at the open tomorrow. Everything is fair in war and trading 

[OEXCHAOS]

It's the doing that's difficult!

Seriously, I feel your pain.

BUT, something that I've been doing is trusting my judgement. When I KNOW something is going to happen (and we all have a few of those times each year), I bend discipline (so long as I have hourly momentum at my back) and get long or short at anything like passable ST support or resistance with a reasonable stop and target. They almost always work out if I can find a reasonable work around and actually get it. And, of course, the worst case scenario is that I get stopped.

Of course, this is not really testable, but I think we've been at this long enough to know that the most testable stuff is most likely to fail, eventually.

 

M

[da_cheif]

i trust my indicators......and go with them....making alot of money is very boring

[NAV]

It's the doing that's difficult!

Seriously, I feel your pain.

BUT, something that I've been doing is trusting my judgement. When I KNOW something is going to happen (and we all have a few of those times each year), I bend discipline (so long as I have hourly momentum at my back) and get long or short at anything like passable ST support or resistance with a reasonable stop and target. They almost always work out if I can find a reasonable work around and actually get it. And, of course, the worst case scenario is that I get stopped.

Of course, this is not really testable, but I think we've been at this long enough to know that the most testable stuff is most likely to fail, eventually.

 

M

 

Occasional discretionary trades are fine. But when they work out, you develop bad trading habits. My efforts over the years has been to reduce the number of trades i do. I used to do 25-30 trades a month. Gradually, over the years, i have reduced it to 4-8 trades a month. I want to keep it at that number. The less i trade, the more i make.

 

Anyway, no big deal. I am looking to go long today.

[NAV]

Long at SPX 2571 with a 2563 STOP. 

[da_cheif]

Long at SPX 2571 with a 2563 STOP. 

hang on    ......https://i.pinimg.com...festyle-men.jpg

[CLK]

You used to wait for retraces after the break to take a position, you miss some doing that, but immediately

buying and selling breakouts and breakdowns doesn't leave much room for error.

[NAV]

CLK,

 

I use three types of buy setups. 1) Wait for a retrace and then buy the breakout 2) Buy the breakout without waiting for a retrace 3) Wait for retrace and buy the retrace without waiting for a breakout

 

I use 1) mostly which works well when the market is in the early stages of uptrend or coming from a downtrend. I use 2) when it's already in a established uptrend and gaps-up, when it's hard to get a retrace or the retrace is so shallow that it does meet my criteria. I use 3) when the retrace is too deep.

Edited by NAV, 20 October 2017 - 10:09 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Long at SPX 2571 with a 2563 STOP. 

 

Good for you!

 

M