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All together now...let's agree on tomorrow's direction!


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#1 Iblayz

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 09:28 PM

Let’s see. We have Intel and Microsoft reporting after the close tomorrow. And let’s not forget the amazing super-duper momo wonder puppies Amazon and Google….(ur I mean Alpherbet….no that’s Alphabet or maybe its Sherbet). Yep, all four report earnings after tomorrow’s close. So, what do you think? Have you ridden the bull in this rodeo before? Now I have to think…..and think hard……just what might be more likely to happen into tomorrow’s close. Well geez. NYAD has taken a sharp downturn. NYUD has taken a sharp downturn. NYMO has made a nasty looking lower low. All of this points to lower……RIGHT? Or have we seen this little play before? Gee, let’s look at the facts.

 

Amazon made $.52 per share in the same period last year. And the magical consensus estimate that they must beat to make it look like they are on the last train to stupidville with the rest of the market is what? Why……can this be true? Yes. That consensus estimate is (.01) per share. That’s right……minus $.01. Amazon closed last October 25th at 835.18. So, in spite of its current price being over 100 points below its recent high, it is still up 16.5% year-over-year. You would think in order to justify an post-earnings run they would have to beat .61 per share and beat it handily. But noooo…..no, no, no, no, no……they can actually make less than last year and look like the king of the hill.

 

So now we move to their super-duper momo wonder puppy cousin Google, or Alphabet, or whatever else it is that they go by. Let’s see. They made $9.06 per share a year ago. Their stock is up 20.5% year-over-year after closing a year ago at 807.67. So you would think that they MUST be expected (according to all of the genius analysts) to make a minimum of $10.92 per share to even justify current prices……..makes sense…..right? Well….no! The consensus for GOOG is $8.40 per share…..a DECREASE of 7.3%!

 

Could this be intentional? Is this some kind of stupid game? Ok…..let’s move on a bit. There is Microsoft. Surely this behemoth can do better. It closed a year ago at 59.56. Based on today’s close, Microsoft’s price is up 32% year-over-year. Wow! They must be expected to absolutely kill it compared to last year’s comparable quarter. No, wait……what did we just learn? Think! Amazing. MSFT made $.76 per share last year. And what, pray tell, are they expected to make in this quarter’s report? Why…..surprise, surprise, surprise! That would be a stunning $.72 per share. And you were tricked into thinking that it should be a minimum of $1.00 per share just to make it look fair. Shame on you for thinking like a sensible person. This is the freakin’ stock market…….the greatest casino in the world. Don’t you know that the house always stacks the odds in its favor. Use your head. Think like you are about to rob a bank or cheat someone out of their money or you are selling a Volkswagen and have painted it to make it look like a Ferrari. Now…..that’s better…..you are getting it.

 

Surely (or Shirley if you prefer), Intel’s expectations must differ from the above examples…..right? Well dang…..you got it right. Intel’s share price is up 19.65% year-over-year. So since they made $.80 per share a year ago, they should be expected to make at least $.96 per share this year to make it look like the people who make up this stuff have some integrity…….right? Well at least they aren’t expected to go backward. That’s right…….yes! They are expected to make the exact same profit per share year-over-year. So I guess if they make $.90…..geez…..we can bid their shares up another 10%.....cause heck……they made at least 10% more than last year…..right?

 

Now, let’s reason together. The internals just took a dive right before our eyes. We have three choices. They take it up from the open and keep it up in eager anticipation of stunning upside surprises…..after all…..it ain’t like they gotta kill it year-over-year to create the illusion. Or they hold it basically where it is with up and down intraday moves…….so these incredible surprises can easily lead to another run at the highs. Or most likely, and based on internals, they bleed it during the day and MAGICALLY…….I mean MAGICALLY……for some unknown reason…..as if caught up by some invisible hand…..the market catches fire in the last hour and BANG…….here comes the incredible reports from the super-duper momo wonder puppies (and friends)…..they beat these almost unreachable year-over-year targets (uh…..excuse me….I have to clear my throat) and…..and…..and….yes…..OFF WE GO into the wild blue yonder. So, let’s all be geniuses together now. Let’s make sure we front-run the market so the dummies who only make decisions based on… ‘Did they beat on the top and bottom lines and did they guide up above consensus” will be stupid enough to buy AFTER we have run it up into these magnificent reports.


Edited by Iblayz, 25 October 2017 - 09:31 PM.


#2 Iblayz

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 09:51 PM

And oh, how could I have forgotten. There is that little insignificant issue in the House of Representatives. That vote. The budget passes and, yes, for the second time in a week the door is opened for tax cuts to be the main focus. What a surprise that will be when the budget passes. Then......yes......its a bird,,,,its a plane.......No.......its pie falling from the sky. And we will all gorge ourselves on the incredible windfall that results......that is, of course......if they can actually do something.....and so far.....that track record ain't too good! 



#3 cycletimer

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 10:00 PM

Im with you on what makes sense, downside, the Top, etc. However..... the market will remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent....

#4 alexnewbee

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 01:28 AM

Good! :)
You could write books.
"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#5 alexnewbee

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 03:07 PM

Very good call Sir!

I take my hat off.

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"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein