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As short-term breadth goes...


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 09:38 PM

From the link:

 

 

Short-term breadth gave a buy signal on the close today.

 

How many times has the market made a move to oversold on short-term breadth and turned up by itself to signal a bounce? As a matter of fact, every time this year a bounce became a swing became a rally.

 

And once again a bounce is guaranteed tomorrow on earnings news as AMZN, GOOGLE, MSFT, INTC and FSLR (from my bellwether stock list) are surging in the overnight trading (see chart panel below). As can be seen in the QQQ chart (the chart in the upper left), and assuming no disaster strikes later tonight, the Nasdaq is going to gap up madly tomorrow, and probably take the rest of the market with it.

 

For further discussion and stock chart panel mentioned above:

 

AS SHORT-TERM BREADTH GOES SO GOES...PART II

 


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#2 NAV

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 09:58 PM

I don't see the Nasdaq futures gapping madly. Right now it's up a modest +12 points. It could change by tomorrow morning though.

 

Also my system remains in a short term correction mode (not a sell signal). I don't have a buy signal yet. Depending on the size of the gap, this could also change. But as of close today, my system remains in cash.


It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#3 bighouse1006

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 10:13 PM

Nasdaq futures up about 60 from the close. Interested to see how the $Rut reacts tomorrow.

Edited by bighouse1006, 26 October 2017 - 10:19 PM.


#4 NAV

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 10:50 PM

Nasdaq futures up about 60 from the close. Interested to see how the $Rut reacts tomorrow.

 

My bad. I was looking at stale quotes. It's indeed up big.


It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#5 fib_1618

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 04:51 AM

Also my system remains in a short term correction mode (not a sell signal). I don't have a buy signal yet.

 

Probably because breadth leads price by a day or two...you should see what Dio is seeing by Monday.

 

Fib


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#6 NAV

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 07:12 AM

 

Also my system remains in a short term correction mode (not a sell signal). I don't have a buy signal yet.

 

Probably because breadth leads price by a day or two...you should see what Dio is seeing by Monday.

 

Fib

 

 

Nope. I will see that at today's open for sure. Either way whether you saw it yesterday after close or see you see it at today's open, it's actionable only at today's open, if you are trading cash.


Edited by NAV, 27 October 2017 - 07:14 AM.

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#7 fib_1618

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:21 AM

 

 

Also my system remains in a short term correction mode (not a sell signal). I don't have a buy signal yet.

 

Probably because breadth leads price by a day or two...you should see what Dio is seeing by Monday.

 

Fib

 

 

Nope. I will see that at today's open for sure. Either way whether you saw it yesterday after close or see you see it at today's open, it's actionable only at today's open, if you are trading cash.

 

 

And this is where we disagree...money moves in advance of news not the other way around.

 

Fib


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#8 NAV

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:23 AM

 

 

 

Also my system remains in a short term correction mode (not a sell signal). I don't have a buy signal yet.

 

Probably because breadth leads price by a day or two...you should see what Dio is seeing by Monday.

 

Fib

 

 

Nope. I will see that at today's open for sure. Either way whether you saw it yesterday after close or see you see it at today's open, it's actionable only at today's open, if you are trading cash.

 

 

And this is where we disagree...money moves in advance of news not the other way around.

 

Fib

 

 

Next time say that before the earnings announcement is made or the news is out. I am not a fan of hindsight knowledge.

 

BTW, today i will get a buy only above 2575.5. Below that the market remains in a corrective mode. 


Edited by NAV, 27 October 2017 - 09:25 AM.

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#9 NAV

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 09:46 AM

 

 

 

 

Also my system remains in a short term correction mode (not a sell signal). I don't have a buy signal yet.

 

Probably because breadth leads price by a day or two...you should see what Dio is seeing by Monday.

 

Fib

 

 

Nope. I will see that at today's open for sure. Either way whether you saw it yesterday after close or see you see it at today's open, it's actionable only at today's open, if you are trading cash.

 

 

And this is where we disagree...money moves in advance of news not the other way around.

 

Fib

 

 

Next time say that before the earnings announcement is made or the news is out. I am not a fan of hindsight knowledge.

 

BTW, today i will get a buy only above 2575.5. Below that the market remains in a corrective mode. 

 

 

 

If it's a philosophical debate, then here what it is. I can make my system as leading or lagging i choose to. More leading means more whipsaws, but you catch the move early which compensates for the whipsaws. More lagging means, more confirmation and less whipsaws but you catch the move a bit late. Either way, it's a personal choice and you tune the leading/lagging behavior to the degree tolerable to you. I am a big fan of confirmation. Over the years i have  been reducing my trading frequency and i am loving it. I used to trade 25 swing trades a month. Now i hardly trade 5-6 swing trades a month. Less trading to me equates to less emotional disturbance and overall better profitability. I am just stating my experience. 


It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#10 Data

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 10:06 AM

If breadth was the catalyst, it would be making the bigger move today.  It doesn't matter in a market where money is being pushed by foreign central banks.   That money can only go into the largest capitalized stocks.