4 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

Below is a yearly chart of the Dow created using Trade Station, it's data, and a Yearly Bar indicator posted in the Trade Station support forums by Suri.  It creates a chart that has what looks like yearly bars based upon monthly data, which is hidden by making the monthly bars the same color as the background.  I undertook this study in order to view very long term trends and Elliott wave patterns.

 

Manual DeMark TD Set Up™, TD Sequential™ and TD Combination ™ counts are color coded per the table in the chart.  It's worth noting that the TD Combination™ blue 13 exhaustion signal hit at the end of a thrust phases1966 and 2000 and the red 13 TD Sequential™ trend exhaustion signal hits at inflections highs in corrective patterns that followed.  This highlights the fractal nature of the Dow, in as much as the same type of signals often coincide with inflection points and the ends of waves of lower degree in the Dow, ( going down even to 1 minute charts).

 

Fib price and time extensions were placed on the chart and a few blue measurement bars.  No Elliott wave labels were added, but a five wave pattern is clear.  Also note that the leg up from the 1932 low to the 1938 high in log scale terms is almost equal to the distance of the leg up between 2009 and 2017. Also note that the rise from 1932 to 1938 was in 5 bars and the rise from 2009 to 2017 is in 8 bars (the low bars aren't counted)

 

Finally, note that yesterday the Dow hit the .100% price extension of the rise from the 1932 bottom and the 2000 top. 

 

A Williams 5/34/5 histogram was incorporated at the bottom, but since the unseen underlying data is monthly, the Williams settings were multiplied by 12 in order to capture longer time frame (60/408/60).  It has a peak currently which is consistent with the normal 5/34 used in the monthly time frame on the Dow peaking in wave 5's going back decades.  There is something about the Dow's construction that makes the Williams 5/34 SMACD peak in wave 5's of the Dow.

 

ATB

Geo

 

[Geomean]

Although I did not put it on the chart so as not to clutter things up, the Abaris-Pesavento extension from the 2000 high to Friday is pi ( 3.142)

[alexnewbee]

Thank you, good work.

What I like with such models - we can see their merit quite fast.

Edited by alexnewbee, 28 October 2017 - 01:11 PM.

[pedro]

So for those of us not entirely familiar with the use of these tools ----

Are you suggesting that we are in a W5 from 1929, despite the current peak value of the MACD histo?

And that we have a good ways to go (a decade or more), because the DM count is only at setup 6, and so we haven't even BEGUN the sequential or combo counts that are needed ahead of a final W5 top?

And this scale adjusted 5 34 5 MACD is not the EW Oscillator commonly specified that way, because its the Standardized MACD?

(Because with the regular EWO, peaks should come on third waves.)

 

I also assume, if we are in a W5 now, that you have some idea on how to count the entire impulse from 1932 to 1966?  1937 to 1942 is likely a ZZ, but I'm at a loss as to where to place the W4 alternation ahead of the 1996 top.    A flat ending in 62?   That question goes double for the move into 2000.    I would submit that 37-42 appears to be a good alternation to 1966-78, with a fifth wave top in 2000, and then an ABC.

 

Not meaning to be a jerk here.   I appreciate ANY effort spent to put the VLT into proper perspective.    But doing so can raise questions, as the implications are not trivial.

 

pdl 

[Geomean]

Pedro, those are good questions. It looks to me that we are in Wave 5.  The Dow has never fit having the 5/34/5 Elliott wave oscillator peak in Wave 3 when I look at prior lower degree peaks.  If I could arrange my S&P data set which goes back to 1920 in a yearly chart format I'd test and compare it with the Dow.

 

There is nothing that requires the current count in the ongoing Yearly TD Set Up count to complete.  If we turned down in a major way, it would not complete and no countdowns would begin.  So an ongoing TD Set Up is not suggesting that we have a long way to go in the current wave.  However, the fib extensions do suggest that there will be a major top at the 2.618 in the future as has been the case in the past.  What happens to the path before then is a separate question.

 

I adjusted the scale on the Elliott Oscillator just to deal with the underlying data which was monthly.  It would have been better to have been able to give the platform actual 1 year bars.

 

Insofar as counting up from 1932, I am no EWT expert.  One process I am comfortable using tries to fit intensive Hurst work and its projections with an EW count that does not violate any rules.  namely that Wave I ended at the 1938 high, Wave III was extended and went from 1941 to 2000 with the corrections at a lesser degree wave 2 from 1945-49 and Wave 4 from 1966 to 1974, and we are in wave V which is near equality now with wave one on a log scale.  The Hurst analysis I've done suggests a large degree top is ahead of us in the not too distant future so an extended Wave 3 from 1938-2000 would fit best if that scenario turns out to be the case.  When I back tested the Hurst tools I utilize they have been accurate only 16% of the time picking large degree tops one month in advance of it's occurrence, with 2007 being the only time they nailed it. I use various iterations and models, but in the end any cycle analysis is pure data fitting and post hoc proctor hoc kind of logic.   So alternative views with a Wave 5 beginning at the 2009 low (or some other count) and continuing for some years to come should be entitled to at least equal weight and respect.

 

Also remarkable here is the DeMark yearly counts and the structure fitting so many Fibonacci price and time extensions .  The fact that both continue to ID fractal progressions at most every scale is remarkable.  Significantly, the monthly charts are beginning to align their DeMark counts to suggest that a somewhat significant thrust top is for the not too distant future with October likely finishing with a 11 in the TD Combination™ countdown in the Dow, the SPX and the QQQ's and Combination Countdown 10's in the Russell and the NDX, a scenario which does fit a number of Hurst projections. 1.382 Fib time projections of the 2000 top to the 2007 top and 2002 low to the 2009 low also hit in the next few months. So for now the weight of the analysis suggests more up, at least for 6 to 12 weeks.

Edited by Geomean, 29 October 2017 - 12:12 AM.