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Question for Mark et al


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#1 NAV

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:51 AM

Investors Intelligence latest - Bulls 63.5 Bears 14.4. Spread between bulls-bears = 49.1

 

Have we historically seen a bigger spread than this? I don't have the historical data for this. I am curious as to what it looked like in 1987.


Edited by NAV, 01 November 2017 - 08:54 AM.

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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:01 AM

we saw these kind of numbers 3 months after the 03 low  ...market kept goin up for 4 more years......when you see AAII with around  80% bulls then you got something to chew on ..current AAII show around 39% bulls     .....the epicenter of primary wave 3 is a once in a lifetime event.....few if any will make the kind of money they should



#3 da_cheif

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:03 AM

Investors Intelligence latest - Bulls 63.5 Bears 14.4. Spread between bulls-bears = 49.1

 

Have we historically seen a bigger spread than this? I don't have the historical data for this. I am curious as to what it looked like in 1987.

in 87 breadth lagged badly thru the summer which produced a bullish C wave decline....that held the apr 86 lows......



#4 libertas

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:13 AM

Schaeffer's Research has a table showing returns after the spread reached 40%. It did so twice in 1987, weeks of 1/16 and 8/14. Unfortunately he does not mention how high it went after that.


Edited by libertas, 01 November 2017 - 09:22 AM.


#5 diogenes227

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:35 AM

Schaeffer's Research has a table showing returns after the spread reached 40%. It did so twice in 1987, weeks of 1/16 and 8/14. Unfortunately he does not mention how high it went after that.

 

Interesting tables.  Like so many indicators, it appears 40-plus is bullish at the beginning of bull runs, and bearish in the end of bull markets.  So is this, as the Doors would have it, THE END?

 

Not a very precise read although in retrospect it appears to be close.  Also...hmm...more than 40% on the spread and "seven" ceases to be a lucky number.

 

Good luck and good trading.

 

P.S.  Also I suspect when a trader and market player as savy as NAV begins to wonder about these things he alone may be a better sentiment indicator than any of this stuff.  Just my two cents...

 


Edited by diogenes227, 01 November 2017 - 10:39 AM.

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#6 NAV

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 10:44 AM

 

Schaeffer's Research has a table showing returns after the spread reached 40%. It did so twice in 1987, weeks of 1/16 and 8/14. Unfortunately he does not mention how high it went after that.

 

Interesting tables.  Like so many indicators, it appears 40-plus is bullish at the beginning of bull runs, and bearish in the end of bull markets.  So is this, as the Doors would have it, THE END?

 

Not a very precise read although in retrospect it appears to be close.  Also...hmm...more than 40% on the spread and "seven" ceases to be a lucky number.

 

Good luck and good trading.

 

P.S.  Also I suspect when a trader and market player as savy as NAV begins to wonder about these things he alone may be a better sentiment indicator than any of this stuff.  Just my two cents...

 

 

 

 

It's not 40%. It's 49.1% now. That's why i am curious. I believe we have not seen this kind of numbers since 1987. I am waiting for Mark or any others with historical data running back to 80s to confirm.


Edited by NAV, 01 November 2017 - 10:46 AM.

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#7 Data

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 11:13 AM

There are also news reports and a Fed study indicating bank deposits stopped growing last year for the first time last year and the money is going directly into the stock market.  It seemed to be implicating rising deposit rates as one of the causes.  You need less cash in the income part of the portfolio if the interest income has risen by 100 basis points.  It will work up to a point...

 

As for 19877, US, Japan, and Germany abandoned the joint intervention policy to devalue the US dollar to help US trade.   10-year yields rallied from 7 percent in January to 9.5 percent in September.   Both Germany and the US central banks were raising their bank lending rates.   The Fed Funds Rate went from 6 to 7.25 percent.  I recall that Greenspan may have also been selling bonds to push up rates.



#8 alexnewbee

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 01:17 PM

Good one GO. Thks
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#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:13 PM

Investors Intelligence latest - Bulls 63.5 Bears 14.4. Spread between bulls-bears = 49.1

 

Have we historically seen a bigger spread than this? I don't have the historical data for this. I am curious as to what it looked like in 1987.

 

As others have said, yes, we have. It's just pointless to try to compare the periods because there's nothing like what we're in in the recent past. Any pro worth his salt knows what's what and that normal trading isn't going to do well.

 

I will say that NAAIM will show considerably more Bullishness, I think, by the time a real top is seen.

 

M


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#10 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 05:18 PM

I hid a number of posts here as a professional courtesy to Ed, in case that stuff is not supposed to be publicly available.


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