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Technically, no top possible today!


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 09:58 AM

While the readings yesterday allowed for the prospect of a top, today, we didn't have enough short Bears in the poll and now that we've made marginal new highs, technically, no top of importance is at all likely.

 

That said, the new high is really very marginal. Also, WWW is upon us. They can definitely take it down hard for a day or two. I wouldn't be making big bullish bets on this tidbit.  Just a heads up.

 

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#2 alexnewbee

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 10:24 AM


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#3 alexnewbee

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 11:55 AM

RUT is showing the direction ;)


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#4 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 01:36 PM

Rut is definitely showing a (gradual?) loss of general market sponsorship.

 

Frankly, that's likely a precondition for whatever we experience for WWW, at least it would seem so.

 

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#5 fib_1618

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 08:35 PM

Looking for some sort of capitulation now near term...primarily in the NASDAQ Composite.

 

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#6 Iblayz

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 09:36 PM

Also, and in conjunction with the above, wouldn't be surprised to see at least a touch of ES 2587.5. That is also a number that should concern one holding short if it were to close the day above said number.

 

 

That number clearly meant something. A close above led to a morning ramp. But the retest failed. Tried to regain the number and did. Hourly close at 11:00 AM was 2587.5. Lost it again but the 30 minute (11:30) closed at 2587.75. The next loss led to a dump. I will say this. In my opinion, 2587.5 and 2588.5 ES will be retested. If they happen in the morning and fail, that will be very bearish short term. If they don't happen as in a gap down and run, ES will go back there at some point. Hourly close at 2576.5 or lower will not be good tomorrow. Could even hit them all in one day and go lower.



#7 Iblayz

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 06:55 AM

Overnight Futures High? 2587.5 after being down 7.



#8 Iblayz

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 08:42 AM

Short Term Signal Status update (in the FWIW department)

 

QQQ - Green. Went green on October 27th and has been green every day except one since.

NDX - Green. Same.

Nasdaq - Green. Same but weaker. Base signal line is 140 points below NDX. Look at $NAAD......more than likely the basis for Fib's comment above.

SPX - Green. Same.

OEX - Green. Same.

SOX - Green. Three straight closes with the baseline above 900. Hard to sell it from there and make it stick.

RUT - Red. Went Red on November 1st. Baseline is in the area where bounces become likely.

NYSE - Green. Made a midrange cross to Green on November 1st. A struggle before and after.

SPY - Green. Same as SPX. Duh.

DOW - Green. Went Red on October 23rd at an incredibly HIGH level......one that is very rare. Back to green on November 2nd. Meandering at high signal line levels. Between October 2nd and October 20th had 11 of 15 days with Baseline ABOVE 900. Again,extremely rare.

Wilshire 5000 - Green. Meandering in midrange to upper midrange.

BKX- Red. Went Red with a sell signal on October 27th. Signal was technically negated on November 2nd but not by much. Baseline is, like the RUT, in an area where bounces become likely.

 

While there are some problems underneath and some clear divergences (like NAAD), the odds of an extremely deep intraday selloff are not good with the above picture. Doesn't mean it can't happen. Watch the numbers. There is a "trap door" below and a "watch out" above. I've posted them (all in my opinion, of course). Some of the above (like SPX) could easily generate short term sell signals with flat to slightly down today.


Edited by Iblayz, 08 November 2017 - 08:43 AM.


#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 11:39 AM


" Some of the above (like SPX) could easily generate short term sell signals with flat to slightly down today."

 

With my stuff, when I get ST or IT Sell signals with flat or slightly down trading, the signals are usually crummy.

 

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#10 Iblayz

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 12:28 PM

All sell signals lately have been crummy unless one is both flexible and nimble. The truth is, I have been expecting strength into Friday. But lately I have been off by one day on everything. That little man that they planted on my shoulders has been telling them all of my thoughts and plans and I haven't been able to shut the little SOB up!