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#1 NAV

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 09:38 AM

IT: Uptrend 
ST: Correction
Intraday: Bias is down
Position: Cash
 
No change from yesterday. They bid up the markets yesterday against a down bias day and paid the price today in the form of a nasty gap down !

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#2 NAV

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 10:15 AM

Market has been correcting upwards the last few days. It's either ultra-bullish behavior or the dip buyers are ignoring technical evidence and blindly buying every x% correction. We should know soon. 

 

Per my system, the ST bias remains down and i will wait until the correction runs it's course.


Edited by NAV, 09 November 2017 - 10:15 AM.

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#3 libertas

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 10:57 AM

With Bitcoin going from less than a penny in 2009 to $7K or whatever it is today, traders have learned to ignore technicals, fundamentals and anything else. After all, risk can be eliminated by selling volatility, right?



#4 NAV

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 11:25 AM

With Bitcoin going from less than a penny in 2009 to $7K or whatever it is today, traders have learned to ignore technicals, fundamentals and anything else. After all, risk can be eliminated by selling volatility, right?

 

This market is predominantly ruled by two classes - passive investors and quants.

 

The efficient market BS has convinced the passive folks to buy, hold and forget and ignore everything in the world.

 

And then we have the quants. The machine learning algos also get conditioned just like us humans, if we have a reasonably good sample size to convince the algos that the chances of a x% correction happening is extremely low. So the x% corrections get bought mechanically, no matter what technical evidence is presented. It's when those signals start failing, they lead to selling cascade. What i find disturbing is that even a no-brainer bearish or downtrend day is getting bought.

 

Bitcoin is another story altogether. It's all about legitimizing sleaze money/money laundering. I find it amazing that i can't enter the U.S with more than $10,000 in my pocket. But you can launder billions through bitcoin and convert it back into U.S dollars anonymously ! Chinese laundered billions and brought properties all around the world. The drug lords around the world must be having a field day !

 

https://www.reddit.c...g_an_anonymous/


Edited by NAV, 09 November 2017 - 11:35 AM.

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#5 12SPX

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 11:30 AM

 

With Bitcoin going from less than a penny in 2009 to $7K or whatever it is today, traders have learned to ignore technicals, fundamentals and anything else. After all, risk can be eliminated by selling volatility, right?

 

This market is predominantly ruled by two classes - passive investors and quants.

 

The efficient market BS has convinced the passive folks to buy, hold and forget and ignore everything in the world.

 

And then we have the quants. The machine learning algos also get conditioned just like us humans, if we have a reasonably good sample size to convince the algos that the chances of a x% correction happening is extremely low. So the x% corrections get bought mechanically, no matter what technical evidence is presented. It's when those signals start failing, they lead to selling cascade. What i find disturbing is that even a no-brainer bearish or downtrend day is getting bought.

 

Bitcoin is another story altogether. It's all about legitimizing sleaze money/money laundering. I find it amazing that i can't enter the U.S with more than $10,000 in my pocket. But you can launder billions through bitcoin and convert it back into U.S dollars anonymously ! Chinese laundered billions and brought properties all around the world. The drug lords around the world must be having a field day !

 

Thats interesting indeed!  Who wants to take the bet that we actually close down -.50%!  If so be there first time in 45 trading days!!!



#6 libertas

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 11:41 AM

Actually Bitcoin isn't anonymous anymore. There are tools out there now that can analyze the blockchain. Yes, Bitcoin is being used for illegal transfers, but there is also a huge speculative contingent.

 

As to the algos, you are quite right but they are competing with one another to be the first to buy. So the drops get smaller and smaller.


Edited by libertas, 09 November 2017 - 11:44 AM.


#7 NAV

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 11:58 AM

 

 

Actually Bitcoin isn't anonymous anymore. There are tools out there now that can analyze the blockchain. Yes, Bitcoin is being used for illegal transfers, but there is also a huge speculative contingent.

 

Well the blockchain itself does not reveal your identity, as it just conatins an ID. However that ID can be linked to your wallet, if you happen to open your wallet on one of those well known bitcoin exchanges, as these exchanges could reveal your data to the authorities. But there are many many clever ways of creating anonymous wallets. The amount of money laundered through bitcoin is vastly underrated and the speculative element is overrated.

 

If it was a speculative mania, it would have ended by now. I think it's more of a global laundering operation than a speculative mania. That's why i think it's exceedingly difficult to estimate how long and high this bitcoin fever can go. It will end the day the authorities start cracking down on it. Technical analysis ain't gonna work here IMHO.


It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#8 CLK

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 07:00 PM

Opinions don't make fact.



#9 NAV

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 08:57 AM

Opinions don't make fact.

 

What opinions ?


It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#10 CLK

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:17 AM

"If it was a speculative mania, it would have ended by now. I think it's more of a global laundering operation than a speculative mania. That's why i think it's exceedingly difficult to estimate how long and high this bitcoin fever can go. It will end the day the authorities start cracking down on it. Technical analysis ain't gonna work here IMHO."

 

 

 Going from fiat to coin to fiat is a pass through, it can't make bitcoin go higher, it's a wash.


Edited by CLK, 13 November 2017 - 08:19 AM.