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The Top is NOT in...


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 11:16 PM

So says the Fully Long/Fully Short and so sez the Best Fade Sell.

 

FWIW.

 

I do expect weakness but not just yet.

 


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#2 bighouse1006

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 12:14 AM

I do not know if the top is in or not. Does your analysis give you a time frame of when we take out the most recent high? You don't have to give me an answer here but does your analysis give you an idea about when we make new highs? Do we make new highs tomorrow, in one week, one month, a year?

#3 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 07:48 AM

I do not know if the top is in or not. Does your analysis give you a time frame of when we take out the most recent high? You don't have to give me an answer here but does your analysis give you an idea about when we make new highs? Do we make new highs tomorrow, in one week, one month, a year?

 

All fair questions. We should take out the most recent high within a couple days. This market really needs to correct and if it does, I think it'll be a bit easier to trade. So, new highs shortly don't serve my interests, but it is what it is.

 

The only thing that makes me worry is that the last new highs were made in GLOBEX, so this may be a slightly different scenario (it might take a bit longer).

 

The take away, really, is that if we are making new highs, and there aren't many Short Bears, it's EXTREMELY unlike that we are going to see worthwhile weakness before higher highs. SO, we know that a pullback is extremely unlikely to morph into a full blown correction. Related conclusion: If there weren't many Short Bears at the most recent high and the market is down a bit from there, pick your spot for a long, because you're very likely to see those highs again. I'll still use stops, but I'm looking long, despite (or maybe because) everything turning down yesterday.

 

M


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#4 JamesE

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 08:26 AM

Nice tidbit there Mark, TY.

#5 q4wer

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 08:40 AM

chances are that we topped already



#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 09:00 AM

chances are that we topped already

 

Looks like it. But there are only a few worthwhile tops that have been put in without the FF's being fairly heavily short. I mean, since we began polling 15 years ago.

 

This isn't a prediction of a massive rally, only that the recent highs will almost assuredly be seen again and within a few days. It might not go any higher than that or it might.

 

Mark


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#7 q4wer

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 09:07 AM

I did n't see any one here on this board, who can call the market consistently right. none :)



#8 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 09:13 AM

This crew, however, is almost ALWAYS leaning long at lows and short at highs. Always. It's nuts.

 

:)


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#9 NAV

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 09:26 AM

I did n't see any one here on this board, who can call the market consistently right. none smile.png

 

Oh finally it has dawned on somebody on this board that i have been preaching for years - that markets cannot be predicted. It's a probabilistic game. It's all about managing your wins vs losses. Making calls is kindergarten stuff. Real men trade !


Edited by NAV, 10 November 2017 - 09:26 AM.

It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. 


#10 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 09:49 AM

Hell, if you can just take your signals and get your stops right, you can be remarkably profitable whilst being wrong! :lol:


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