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SPY options - again, the "Fool's Game"


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:29 PM

From the Link:

 

 

Typical of this bull market, the opening gap down today got bought again almost immediately.

 

For buying the SPY calls this was a no-brainer.

 

SPY opened at 257.32 and closed up on its first five-minute bar bringing the weekly 257 call into play for the day, and giving a $5K buy signal for the open on the option’s second five-minute bar at 1.48 per contract. It never looked back, giving further $5K buy signals on entries at 1.54, 1.70, 1.79, and 1.80 per contract (see the chart in the link) for a total long of 149 call contracts on the day.

 


For Context and the Chart:

 

THE FOOL'S GAME


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#2 dowdeva

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 09:21 PM

Would love to see an analysis in real time, occasionally. They always seem to be after the fact.



#3 CLK

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:31 AM

Let us know if you are buying the dip this morning.



#4 Data

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 10:34 AM

He was losing money on 2 of his 4 trades.   What prompted him to wait for the closing ramp to issue a sell signal on all four trades.  It looks like he getting buy and sell signals on only or mostly upticks.


Edited by Data, 14 November 2017 - 10:35 AM.


#5 diogenes227

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 11:37 AM

Would love to see an analysis in real time, occasionally. They always seem to be after the fact.

 

Just for you.  Not quite real time (I've been busy).  In on one $5K position on this weekly 257 call at 1.31.  The stop is at 1.28.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#6 dowdeva

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 11:37 AM

Thanks. Looking to short on rallies - 20 week Hurst high here.

 

Think 'they' might take it down until next week so' they' can ramp it up for Thanksgiving.

 

A very bizarre head and pattern shoulder building up on the intra-day SPY. Bizarre because of all the left shoulders due to his slow grind up out of the August low. First projection is at 254, then 251.


Edited by dowdeva, 14 November 2017 - 11:44 AM.


#7 diogenes227

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 11:50 AM

He was losing money on 2 of his 4 trades.   What prompted him to wait for the closing ramp to issue a sell signal on all four trades.  It looks like he getting buy and sell signals on only or mostly upticks.

 

I'm working on that and will maybe write about it in the blog if I can figure out how to grab those spike highs and avoid those sell-downs without going totally insane.  As it is now, those might-have-beens are ever enticing, but money at the end of the day still can buy lunch (I'm on Pacific time).

 

Good luck and good trading.

 

P.S. By the way, there were five trades.  That first buy is hard to see on the chart but it is there.  And money was made on all five trades, although, granted, barely any on the last two.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#8 diogenes227

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 11:59 AM

Now in two $5K positions, 73 contracts.  It that can get up in the gap, this will be a fine day.  If not, the breakeven is now at 1.35 so I am moving my stop to there.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#9 dowdeva

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 01:03 PM

Thanks, Diogenes.



#10 diogenes227

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 01:16 PM

FYI:

 

On that third buy (see the chart) bringing the position to 107 contracts, the breakeven moved to 1.38.  And stopped me out.  I am now flat on options.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.