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Hard to call a pause, let alone a pull back


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 08:42 PM

From the link:

 

 

So, if there’s a pause here, can it turn into a pull back?

 

This could be tricky since long-term breadth continues to climb (up for the fourth day). Given that, if short-term breadth turns up here in the next day or two (or bless a bottom dollar, three days), the market would get another bullish boost. If long-term breadth turns down, this could very easily become the hook that catches every bull off guard. Although the bull market has so far defied the signs over and over again, it is inevitable that one of these times, like today, when the signals signal a turn, the turn will come. Probably when the bears are worn out and the bulls don’t expect anything of on their blindside.

 

For more discussion and the signal table:

 

Market Timing - time for a pause?


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#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 09:40 PM

At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 November 2017 - 09:42 PM.


#3 da_cheif

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 10:03 PM

how do u spell E P I C E N T E R.....the result of taking out the upper trendline of a monster continuation pattern..testing the line from above twice for good measure ,known as the expanding triangle that so many called a broadening TOP!!

 

http://www.siliconin...?msgid=31362209



#4 diogenes227

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 02:09 AM

At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back

 

Yup, anything can happen.  If the Senate passes the tax bill, I'd look for a 50% pull back.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#5 opinionated

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:59 AM

Agreed,
I have extreme risk on a 5 min cycle chart that says late today or tomorrow should be a spike low. 10 min says prolonged decline into next Monday/Tues... but breadth has signaled a bottom. Internal correction as we have seen over and over. I was at the Cleveland clinic yesterday with my wife, expecting the above decline I had a limit order in for the spy 259's then got busy with doctors and then the 3 hour drive home. Looking at charts over night was glad I stood aside. Then during my morning coffee I saw my order had filled just before the close! A true sign of a crappy trader though st bear, and short I have disappointed myself this morning.

#6 Data

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 11:10 AM

Notice someone is still trying to use the 20-week and 40-week cycles.   The back half of the cycle is outperforming the front half most of the time now.

 

http://jayonthemarke...le-begin-again/

 

I used to break them up into thirds with the first 6 2/3rds weeks the most bullish with a secondary high at the end of the next 6 2/3rds weeks depending on whether the cycle was right-justified (bull market) or left-justified (bear market).  

 

The QE has gone on from simply a flow situation, where the infusion of funds is greater than the net issuance, to one where the private holdings have been declining.  


Edited by Data, 28 November 2017 - 11:11 AM.


#7 fib_1618

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:19 PM

 

At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back

 

Yup, anything can happen.  If the Senate passes the tax bill, I'd look for a 50% pull back.

 

 

I see your 50% and raise you to 75%!

 

This whole notion that the market is somehow tied to what they do in Washington at a moments notice won't make you any money...only knowing the technical condition will.

 

Fib


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#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 02:14 PM

 

 

At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back

 

Yup, anything can happen.  If the Senate passes the tax bill, I'd look for a 50% pull back.

 

 

I see your 50% and raise you to 75%!

 

This whole notion that the market is somehow tied to what they do in Washington at a moments notice won't make you any money...only knowing the technical condition will.

 

Fib

 

When you look at SPX chart you should know that the profile is a result of the Washington politics and the Fed policies.  Without the politics and policies SPX may still struggle around 600.  The market rallied without a stop since Trump took the presidency because of the anticipation of the corporate tax cut.  So, in a couple of days this is going to be put under test ............


Edited by redfoliage2, 28 November 2017 - 02:16 PM.


#9 da_cheif

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 02:20 PM

 

 

 

At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back

 

Yup, anything can happen.  If the Senate passes the tax bill, I'd look for a 50% pull back.

 

 

I see your 50% and raise you to 75%!

 

This whole notion that the market is somehow tied to what they do in Washington at a moments notice won't make you any money...only knowing the technical condition will.

 

Fib

 

When you look at SPX chart you should know that the profile is a result of the Washington politics and the Fed policies.  Without the politics and policies SPX may still struggle around 600.  The market rallied without a stop since Trump took the presidency because of the anticipation of the corporate tax cut.  So, in a couple of days this is going to be put under test ............

 

>  The market rallied without a stop since Trump took the presidency because of the anticipation of the corporate tax cut. <    we dont need no stinkin hindsite!...we need forsite eh    675ono



#10 diogenes227

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 02:30 PM

 

 

At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back

 

Yup, anything can happen.  If the Senate passes the tax bill, I'd look for a 50% pull back.

 

 

I see your 50% and raise you to 75%!

 

This whole notion that the market is somehow tied to what they do in Washington at a moments notice won't make you any money...only knowing the technical condition will.

 

Fib

 

 

Really?  I was being half facetious when I pegged 50% for the pullback on the tax cut, although when NYSE margin debt begins to unravel and given that the tax cut is the last of the QEs (so to speak), that looks like a reasonable historical target.  Who knows?  A lot of time is going to have to pass before that is even possible..

 

But are you being facetious too or serious?  Do you actually think this market is vulnerable to a 75% pull back whenever the bubble pops?


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.