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#1 CLK

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

Expecting cash to test overnight futures low, rally and close flat for a Friday. System is still on an IT buy.



#2 CLK

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 12:00 PM

Doesn't get much better than that, 40 ES points down from the time of my post with only 5 points drawdown.  And now the retrace.

Seen this many times on the overnight retest, that's why I called it.



#3 CLK

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:15 PM

The system is now on a sell, I knew it would bounce intraday so I waited to mark the spot where to take profit and short, I think this is close enough.

They could go back to even on the open, but can they hold it there for an hour ?

 

 



#4 NAV

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:25 PM

What size stop does this system require ? I am guessing at least 2 times the brick size which is essentially 15 SPX points or 1.5 spy points per your chart.


Edited by NAV, 01 December 2017 - 01:26 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#5 CLK

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:50 PM

What size stop does this system require ? I am guessing at least 2 times the brick size which is essentially 15 SPX points or 1.5 spy points per your chart.

 

 

 

Yes, 1.5 SPY, 15 SPX points.  Since it's an hourly close chart, the stop has to stay in place on an hourly closing basis to act on it and you can wait for a retrace intraday after the signal depending on market conditions to reverse. Something like this, 2 bricks in an hour is going to get a retrace. 

 

So in waiting for the retrace the stop is around 1 point now.


Edited by CLK, 01 December 2017 - 01:58 PM.


#6 CLK

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Posted 04 December 2017 - 10:31 AM

The system is now on a sell, I knew it would bounce intraday so I waited to mark the spot where to take profit and short, I think this is close enough.

They could go back to even on the open, but can they hold it there for an hour ?

 

 

 

 

Since we gapped three bricks I'm assuming we get a retrace, so setting stop for the system at $267.02 just above the highs.



#7 CLK

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Posted 04 December 2017 - 04:15 PM

 

The system is now on a sell, I knew it would bounce intraday so I waited to mark the spot where to take profit and short, I think this is close enough.

They could go back to even on the open, but can they hold it there for an hour ?

 

 

 

 

Since we gapped three bricks I'm assuming we get a retrace, so setting stop for the system at $267.02 just above the highs.

 

 

 

Ok, so patience payed off today. Stop set above open highs never hit and system is back on a fresh sell. The high volume bar Friday was a clue that a bounce was next but I didn't check it real time. Now what we have today is what you want to see, 90% of the time the brick will print on low volume if the move is going to continue, the volume builds within that brick as time goes on, so if it builds high without another down brick first then the sell is probably going to fail. But right now I am expecting follow through to the downside with maybe some minor bounce first. No use in taking the stop today on a 3 brick gap up, if the market was at an IT low then that would be different.


Edited by CLK, 04 December 2017 - 04:16 PM.


#8 CLK

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 02:55 PM

 

 

The system is now on a sell, I knew it would bounce intraday so I waited to mark the spot where to take profit and short, I think this is close enough.

They could go back to even on the open, but can they hold it there for an hour ?

 

 

 

 

Since we gapped three bricks I'm assuming we get a retrace, so setting stop for the system at $267.02 just above the highs.

 

 

 

Ok, so patience payed off today. Stop set above open highs never hit and system is back on a fresh sell. The high volume bar Friday was a clue that a bounce was next but I didn't check it real time. Now what we have today is what you want to see, 90% of the time the brick will print on low volume if the move is going to continue, the volume builds within that brick as time goes on, so if it builds high without another down brick first then the sell is probably going to fail. But right now I am expecting follow through to the downside with maybe some minor bounce first. No use in taking the stop today on a 3 brick gap up, if the market was at an IT low then that would be different.

 

 

 

After the expected small retrace, sell is now accelerating, 3pm the new brick prints. This is how to use price and volume!



#9 CLK

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 04:28 PM

Small stops just don't work, that's why people miss moves because they are trying to time something by the 1 min. charts thinking

they are going to make sure they don't lose much. 

 

 

System is up about 14 SPX points from Friday and there is no telling how far this might drop, Nov. lows probably the least, but no way to know 

just following price. Volume is still low.


Edited by CLK, 05 December 2017 - 04:28 PM.


#10 NAV

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Posted 06 December 2017 - 12:57 PM

Small stops just don't work, that's why people miss moves because they are trying to time something by the 1 min. charts thinking

they are going to make sure they don't lose much. 

 

 

System is up about 14 SPX points from Friday and there is no telling how far this might drop, Nov. lows probably the least, but no way to know 

just following price. Volume is still low.

 

 

Nobody loses in paper trading. Try trading with 25 points stop in real life. 2 or 3 back to back whips can happen even on hourly chart. Then you will understand the viability of such systems. Anyway nothing teaches more than real-life trading with real money.

 

You remember the crappy month prior to the elections last year. Try testing this system in that kind of sideways market. You will be ripped to shreds if you try to trade both ways with a stop and reverse system.


Edited by NAV, 06 December 2017 - 01:01 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch