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#21 CLK

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 04:38 PM

 

 

Nothing to do but wait and see if they hit my stop of 267.02. Volume is low which is bullish, but with four days up in a 

row, odds of a retrace are high. 



#22 CLK

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 12:35 PM

System is stopped out for about 25 SPX points loss. Not chasing this, staying flat until something changes. Costly mistake ignoring 

a clear volume signal. High volume up bars in the middle of a move don't mean much, just the start of a move unlike big down volume bars.



#23 CLK

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Posted 13 December 2017 - 04:07 PM

 

 

 

Putting system back on a sell on close at $266.82. Stop is another hourly close brick higher at $267.75.


Edited by CLK, 13 December 2017 - 04:09 PM.


#24 CLK

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 06:44 PM

System stats since mid November in SPX points, +52.5, -25, (+12 not closed yet). If not for the one mistake fading the volume signal

it would be up 84.5 points in a month.

 

Stop set on the close yesterday did not hit, but the volume is building on the up bar, that concerns me short term for a bounce, if we get an

hourly down brick print tomorrow morning then the downside is ok. The high volume is mostly selling as seen on the ohlc chart but the Renko system has not turned yet so I view this as a small bounce maybe mid day tomorrow. 


Edited by CLK, 14 December 2017 - 06:44 PM.


#25 CLK

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 12:29 PM

 

 

 

Putting system back on a sell on close at $266.82. Stop is another hourly close brick higher at $267.75.

 

 

Another brick higher and system will be stopped out. Giving up on shorting now after the run up from August would probably result in a 100 SPX point trend down, so staying on a sell.



#26 CLK

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 10:34 AM

Wasn't expecting another 20 point gap. So I will try to salvage something here, setting hard stop for the day at $268.76, above the

day highs. Going forward I'm leaning towards not shorting at all as it doesn't yield much even on a turn.


Edited by CLK, 18 December 2017 - 10:34 AM.


#27 NAV

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 11:08 AM

You are overriding the system again. If you don't follow the system in paper trading, how will you follow when you trade real money ? And what you are doing is not something you can replicate in real money trading. Give me a break !. You are in a 10 point loss and the market gaps and moves another 18 points against you and sit calmly and wait for a retrace to set the stop at day high. You would be running for the door like a scalded cat, if it was real money and you had 28 points loss. And with the kind of stops you are using (25 points), your risk/reward has to be at least 1:5 in swing trading to make decent money in the long run. How many trades will give you 125 points in a swing trade ? It looks like a negative expectancy system in the long run to me. Your STOPS are way BIG for the kind of rewards this system gives you.


Edited by NAV, 18 December 2017 - 11:11 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#28 CLK

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 11:52 AM

Well I was trying to see how it would work not purely mechanical, I shorted right last Thursday and was up 12 into the close,

I just didn't cover. If I had taken the 3 brick gap up stop the other day then it would have cost me double loss as it reversed short 

right after and the market gapped up again following. I was doing fine until I ignored the volume signal, I would still be long and

no loss and no shorting. The high volume hourly down bars on any type charts are getting bought every time. Trying to short for more 

than a few hours is nearly 100% wrong in this relentless uptrend. I can't take the stop and go long now, too much risk so I will go

to cash until another sell and buy sequence. Maybe I can monitor the polls to see if something is worth shorting for a more important top

if I get a down brick.


Edited by CLK, 18 December 2017 - 11:53 AM.


#29 NAV

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 11:55 AM

Well I was trying to see how it would work not purely mechanical, I shorted right last Thursday and was up 12 into the close,

I just didn't cover. If I had taken the 3 brick gap up stop the other day then it would have cost me double loss as it reversed short 

right after and the market gapped up again following. I was doing fine until I ignored the volume signal, I would still be long and

no loss and no shorting. The high volume hourly down bars on any type charts are getting bought every time. Trying to short for more 

than a few hours is nearly 100% wrong in this relentless uptrend. I can't take the stop and go long now, too much risk so I will go

to cash until another sell and buy sequence. Maybe I can monitor the polls to see if something is worth shorting for a more important top

if I get a down brick.

 

I will repeat one more time.Your Stops are way too big for the rewards you will get from this system.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#30 CLK

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 12:18 PM

Stops could be an issue, but a 6 point stop is not going to survive a 20 point gap. I had one gap against the direction of the system and I dealt with it and avoided the stop, My problem was after I ignored the volume signal I should have just went long and took the small stop which would have only been coming out of the profits of the past trade. Instead I went against the system buy status and tried to turn a short term profitable short into something more and the market gapped on me Friday. I just didn't follow the system. At some point the market will get choppy and the system will fail but that is usually in the summer months. 


Edited by CLK, 18 December 2017 - 12:18 PM.