2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

The primary system risk window for a turn or acceleration of the current trend for this coming week appears to be Wednesday the 13th of December.  

 

ASTO gurus are pointing to Monday the 11th as a big stock market event risk day.  My system does show a minor peak in risk that day, but not nearly as large as the peak on Wednesday. 

 

Last week the December 4th risk window tagged a high and the 6th risk window caught a low in RYDHX.  The market action the first half of this week should clarify which was more important.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

[dowdeva]

Thank you, Larry,

 

Much appreciated.  Can you say at all how your derive these risk windows, or is it proprietary?

 

~D

[Douglas]

I derive the risk windows in an EXCEL spreadsheet in which I list events, cycles, etc.  that I have learned in my nearly 35 years tinkering around in the stock market that appear to regularly turn markets or are coincident with past market turns.  A good example is the FED meeting decision day.   Each is weighted depending on how reliable it has been in catching turns.  The total for each business day is then calculated.  I call for turns or acceleration of the trend on days with either very high risk values or very low ones.  I hope that I identify enough market movers to shade the odds in my favour for at least some of the periods of elevated risk for a turn or acceleration of the stock market.  I am constantly on the lookout for news ones to add to my already long list. 

 

Regards,

Douglas