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#1 NAV

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Posted 10 December 2017 - 11:01 PM

https://www.cnbc.com.../?symbol=@XBT.1

 

Price discovery begins now !


Edited by NAV, 10 December 2017 - 11:01 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#2 MikeyG

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Posted 10 December 2017 - 11:24 PM

It's going to 100K, no reason to short....



#3 NAV

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:01 AM

It's going to 100K, no reason to short....

 

You forgot to mention "by month end"  laugh.png


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#4 CLK

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:12 AM

What happens when this takes liquidity away from ES, NQ, who wouldn't rather try to trade for a 1000 points a day instead of 5-10 ? Then you could see some serious volatility in the indexes, not just down but all over the place like bitcoin is doing. And a lot of those bitcoin futures traders will go bankrupt.



#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:33 AM

Who can say, "Lock-Limit Up"?

Who can say "Long-Limit Down"?

 

I imagine we're going to hear both fairly often!

 

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#6 12SPX

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

Whats most interesting is that ES futures jumped above the cash S&P on Thursday and remaining there trading about +2.00 points above.  For years and years futures were always higher and then at the bottom of the 2008 crisis they started trading  below and have remained there since.  The question is have they flipped again and what does that mean.....



#7 MikeyG

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:44 AM

Bull is in full mode, if the yield curve inverts, wake me up!! 



#8 arbman

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 09:56 AM

Whats most interesting is that ES futures jumped above the cash S&P on Thursday and remaining there trading about +2.00 points above.  For years and years futures were always higher and then at the bottom of the 2008 crisis they started trading  below and have remained there since.  The question is have they flipped again and what does that mean.....


The carrying cost of equity futures is increased by interest rates and reduced by dividends, generally speaking. The short term rates went to zero and dividends kept paying, so you got a negative carry.

Edited by arbman, 11 December 2017 - 09:57 AM.


#9 12SPX

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 10:10 AM

 

Whats most interesting is that ES futures jumped above the cash S&P on Thursday and remaining there trading about +2.00 points above.  For years and years futures were always higher and then at the bottom of the 2008 crisis they started trading  below and have remained there since.  The question is have they flipped again and what does that mean.....


The carrying cost of equity futures is increased by interest rates and reduced by dividends, generally speaking. The short term rates went to zero and dividends kept paying, so you got a negative carry.

 

Thanks yes I know but I'm thinking more on the psychological point of it, seems an interesting time to do it.   



#10 libertas

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Posted 11 December 2017 - 12:30 PM

Like any futures contract, Spoos can move from contango to backwardation and back again independent of fair value calculation. However, note that short rates have been climbing, presumably as a result of concern about Fed and Congressional uncertainties. But at the end of the day the contango on the March Spoos simply reflects relatively less enthusiasm on the part of those taking the short side of the contract, for whatever reason. Draw what conclusion you will.