Demand is slackening... we got no problem with supply...
What drove commodities for the last 10 years is China...
I've traveled a lot in China over the past 6 years...
Empty brand new skyscrapers everywhere.... thousands of them, and not just in "ghost" cities...
Live real estate - no buyers. We're hitting the wall there...
I have a very non-scientific way of measuring building in China, I simply count the number of building cranes in a given area, like from the Shanghai Pudong Airport to downtown... in 2011 I counted 157, last trip they are down to 45... so it's slowing down.
Our biggest problem is oversupply... we overproduce, and only through price manipulation have prices remained high, you know who wants that?... yes, our good friends at the central banks... not too many years ago they were heavily pushing commodities and shamelessly running up futures contracts... when crude hit $142... and when was that? Oh yeah, summer of 2008 and we all know what followed that bubble...
Without inflation driving it, their little fractional reserve game crumbles...