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OVERTIME AND OVERPRICED - SUDDEN DEATH


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#11 da_cheif

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 06:04 AM

Yes Mark,

 

And Real estate is starting to explode as well! Typical cycle.... Interest rates are making the swing as well.

 

When the spending is at it's peak... the turn will be upon us...

this is not typical.......whats coming will bogle the mind....its a once in a lifetime event



#12 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 08:19 AM

My call is 100/100

 

Meaningful market turn within 100 SPX points and 100 days... which would take us into the March Timeframe...

 

But anytime within 100/100

 

SUDDEN DEATH


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#13 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 09:30 AM

FYI - these commodities are getting SLAMMED...

 

How about Natural Gas, traded at 3.45 in September

 

2.69 this morning...

 

https://www.barchart...studyheight=100


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#14 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 09:41 AM

Daily Chart Nat Gas

 

NG121417d.JPG.45d07b384daf7cb671e54dced9


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#15 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 10:06 AM

So, less pressure for a rate hike.

 

More free cash to spend on other, less prosaic stuff!


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#16 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 10:25 AM

Demand is slackening... we got no problem with supply...

 

What drove commodities for the last 10 years is China...

 

I've traveled a lot in China over the past 6 years...

 

Empty brand new skyscrapers everywhere.... thousands of them, and not just in "ghost" cities...

 

Live real estate - no buyers.  We're hitting the wall there...

 

I have a very non-scientific way of measuring building in China, I simply count the number of building cranes in a given area, like from the Shanghai Pudong Airport to downtown... in 2011 I counted 157, last trip they are down to 45... so it's slowing down.

 

Our biggest problem is oversupply... we overproduce, and only through price manipulation have prices remained high, you know who wants that?... yes, our good friends at the central banks... not too many years ago they were heavily pushing commodities and shamelessly running up futures contracts... when crude hit $142... and when was that?  Oh yeah, summer of 2008 and we all know what followed that bubble...

 

Without inflation driving it, their little fractional reserve game crumbles...


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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics