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HOLY SMOKES!!! Incredible Sentiment.


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:43 PM

100% of NAAIM Advisors are 75% or more long. 

 

That's a huge shift. The "Average Advisor" went from 58% long to 109% long. In one week!

 

I'm not a Bear, especially at this time of year, but I can't help but believe that they'll punish these late-comer Bulls with a shot down of some sort shortly.

 

Mark


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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:46 PM

in a bull mkt only the bulls are right...but notice naaim....they are still a nervous bunch......stems from inexperience



#3 bighouse1006

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:47 PM

The $RUT is a tell.

#4 da_cheif

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:57 PM

as we approach a possible post opex adjustment  ..mon tues or wed.....i advise tightening the stop on that  short term entry at 2620 to 2660   ...todays close.we examine the individual volumes of the 30 dow stocks   and the analysis of that will be reported to my subs over the weekend and may provide enough info to address any short term trading strategies on my 605 pm est sunday update



#5 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 12:57 PM

This is a news driven market.  Today (not yesterday) everyone took the news that the Congress is set to pass the tax bill early next week...............



#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 02:46 PM

in a bull mkt only the bulls are right...but notice naaim....they are still a nervous bunch......stems from inexperience

 

The Median Advisor has been mostly or fully long since March of last year. I expect there to be guys short over there, they're market timers after all, but most of them seem to be mostly right most of the time.


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#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 04:01 PM

I see SPX is going to 2700 in the next week if the tax bill passes, that should cap it......


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 December 2017 - 04:01 PM.


#8 da_cheif

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 04:14 PM

closing activity suggests an immediate reaction on monday.....bthdikswoon.gif



#9 melonseed

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 04:18 PM

Incredible bull market. As usual. Rally into close.


Trade safe.

#10 Data

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 06:01 PM

Sentiment has been high for a long time.   71 percent expected a Q4 rally into year-end.  Margin debt at multiples of past bubbles and retail investor flow exceeding 100 percent of total trades all year.

 

There has been a scarcity of investible assets.   It was flow-driven for years but cb holdings have reached levels last year that also crowd out or reduce private holdings.