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emerging wave 3


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#1211 senorBS

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 09:49 AM

Note that I would not be surprised to see the GDX have a quick drop below 22.04 (currently 22.17) to complete a wave c of an abc correction from April 18 high, we'll see

 

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#1212 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 09:57 AM

i dont know to me it looks like silver/miners are stronger than gold they are leading. i agree w/senor. miners lead up and they lead down.  and while i may not be an expert on cots,  the fact is that the large specs have their smallest long position since the decembe15r lows is saying something to me. and i agree it is a long drawn out process , that has lulled and turned off most participants.. when they take a miner that has vast resources behind the woodshed i am a buyer. i posted, ages ago the video shown at the denver gold forum , w/guys walking around w/geiger counters and knives, pulling nuggets out of the ground , novo hit 7 on the excitement when it hit 2-3 afterwards , the thrill was gone baby. i bought. this australia find is going to be huge hennigh was chief head geologist for newmont before he staked his claim to this find.  he knows a thing or 2 about mining. there are 3 other miners that have staked claims around novos, that have been finding flakes and nuggets.  granted buying miners takes research , most are better off w/the indexes, gdx/gdxj  i read on this stuff alone for hours every day, and still  since it is speculative there are stumbles.   but buying juniors who are about to come to market and raise more funds, diluting shares seems like throwing out money

the commodity boom, is about to begin. after years of being in the doldrums they are getting play. inflation/stagflation will show itself by years end. in this biz if there is a crowd  , someone is about to be fleeced.  the crowd will come in the recognition phase.  then all the experts will show up. extolling the value of gold in stage 1 of the 4 stage model , which is where we are there are mixed opinions.   i dont think 1261 gets taken out 1293 and 1277 are in play adn i think this range will hold the decline. we are oversold .  21 is big support on gdx.  i dont know what people are looking at this but i track this stuff daily and the miners are stronger than gold.   its possible i dont know what i am talking about.  i agree w/ the hombre -senor

dharma


Edited by dharma, 17 May 2018 - 10:01 AM.


#1213 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 11:01 AM

i am including this piece, only because he mentions the dsi for gold and silvr @10 on may 15th  which is what i presented in yesterdays post. in addition he is thinking as i am, that a major low in the sector rapidly approaches http://www.321gold.c...arty051718.html

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#1214 senorBS

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 11:13 AM

i dont know to me it looks like silver/miners are stronger than gold they are leading. i agree w/senor. miners lead up and they lead down.  and while i may not be an expert on cots,  the fact is that the large specs have their smallest long position since the decembe15r lows is saying something to me. and i agree it is a long drawn out process , that has lulled and turned off most participants.. when they take a miner that has vast resources behind the woodshed i am a buyer. i posted, ages ago the video shown at the denver gold forum , w/guys walking around w/geiger counters and knives, pulling nuggets out of the ground , novo hit 7 on the excitement when it hit 2-3 afterwards , the thrill was gone baby. i bought. this australia find is going to be huge hennigh was chief head geologist for newmont before he staked his claim to this find.  he knows a thing or 2 about mining. there are 3 other miners that have staked claims around novos, that have been finding flakes and nuggets.  granted buying miners takes research , most are better off w/the indexes, gdx/gdxj  i read on this stuff alone for hours every day, and still  since it is speculative there are stumbles.   but buying juniors who are about to come to market and raise more funds, diluting shares seems like throwing out money

the commodity boom, is about to begin. after years of being in the doldrums they are getting play. inflation/stagflation will show itself by years end. in this biz if there is a crowd  , someone is about to be fleeced.  the crowd will come in the recognition phase.  then all the experts will show up. extolling the value of gold in stage 1 of the 4 stage model , which is where we are there are mixed opinions.   i dont think 1261 gets taken out 1293 and 1277 are in play adn i think this range will hold the decline. we are oversold .  21 is big support on gdx.  i dont know what people are looking at this but i track this stuff daily and the miners are stronger than gold.   its possible i dont know what i am talking about.  i agree w/ the hombre -senor

dharma

very well said amgo, all you have to do is look at the miner/gold ratio charts I mentioned or look at gold making a new low for the year today and see where GDXJ or GDX is, or key gold stocks like NEM/AEM/ABX etc and SEE there are all solidly above their lows for this year, it is what it is

 

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#1215 dharma

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 11:42 AM

 

i dont know to me it looks like silver/miners are stronger than gold they are leading. i agree w/senor. miners lead up and they lead down.  and while i may not be an expert on cots,  the fact is that the large specs have their smallest long position since the decembe15r lows is saying something to me. and i agree it is a long drawn out process , that has lulled and turned off most participants.. when they take a miner that has vast resources behind the woodshed i am a buyer. i posted, ages ago the video shown at the denver gold forum , w/guys walking around w/geiger counters and knives, pulling nuggets out of the ground , novo hit 7 on the excitement when it hit 2-3 afterwards , the thrill was gone baby. i bought. this australia find is going to be huge hennigh was chief head geologist for newmont before he staked his claim to this find.  he knows a thing or 2 about mining. there are 3 other miners that have staked claims around novos, that have been finding flakes and nuggets.  granted buying miners takes research , most are better off w/the indexes, gdx/gdxj  i read on this stuff alone for hours every day, and still  since it is speculative there are stumbles.   but buying juniors who are about to come to market and raise more funds, diluting shares seems like throwing out money

the commodity boom, is about to begin. after years of being in the doldrums they are getting play. inflation/stagflation will show itself by years end. in this biz if there is a crowd  , someone is about to be fleeced.  the crowd will come in the recognition phase.  then all the experts will show up. extolling the value of gold in stage 1 of the 4 stage model , which is where we are there are mixed opinions.   i dont think 1261 gets taken out 1293 and 1277 are in play adn i think this range will hold the decline. we are oversold .  21 is big support on gdx.  i dont know what people are looking at this but i track this stuff daily and the miners are stronger than gold.   its possible i dont know what i am talking about.  i agree w/ the hombre -senor

dharma

very well said amgo, all you have to do is look at the miner/gold ratio charts I mentioned or look at gold making a new low for the year today and see where GDXJ or GDX is, or key gold stocks like NEM/AEM/ABX etc and SEE there are all solidly above their lows for this year, it is what it is

 

Senor

 

exactly! 

the question to my mind is -does the sector need a washout.  or will this move below the 200 dma and abelow the round # be enough to discourage most. . i dont know the answer, but i think a major low is very close.  you dont see these valuations in the miners , but once  a decade, maybe  of course there is blood running in the streets and my best guess is the banksters after shorting this stuff are now getting long. i have no proof of that and it could be all wet.  but that is my feeling .  its just you dont see this very often. 

dharma 

4 decades of doing this 



#1216 K Wave

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:31 PM

16.50 has now been turned into resistance on Silver after the throwover above that level (Silver still acting a lot better than gold here).

 

IF/WHEN Silver busts through 16.50, then will start to re-load long for longer term move up. And a daily close above 16.75 would likely signal the bears are finished...

 

But until then, action remains bearish (throwover after throwover after throwover....), and if 16.25 is taken out again now, no telling at this point where downside might end.

A breach of 16.40 (which would be yet another mini throwover) would be first sign that 16.25 is in danger of being attacked again....



#1217 Smithy

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:38 PM

Well said, K wave



#1218 K Wave

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:41 PM

Crude also startin' to look a wee bit tired on hourly, with daily extended up into significant resistance zone just above 70.



#1219 Smithy

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 09:34 AM

Senor, you have a wave count for the last week of hourly gold?



#1220 senorBS

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:14 AM

Senor, you have a wave count for the last week of hourly gold?

Best I can see is we are in or have possibly ended v of 5 from May 10/11 wave 4 high just above 1325, and that IMO looks to complete a larger 5 down from 1365 May 11 high which I favor was a wave B. If correct wave C may have ended right at that key 1286 support area. Key juncture

 

BTW basis an hourly close only/line chart the low for this decline was clearly this morning right at that 1286 level, and right now with prices at 1292-1283 we could have at least an hourly close only 5 up, some potentially encouraging action so far buy obviously we need to see a lot more tho suggest a final low might be in place - I'd like to see a near term run and close above 1295 here, we see

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 18 May 2018 - 11:23 AM.