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emerging wave 3


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#1221 dharma

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:33 AM

yes, we are close if not there. not quite sure this flat line or consolidation could be a 4

from a larger perspective , we are setting up for a sustained move. monsoon season is near. and indian buying season approaches

this is a time to accumulate, imo.  waiting for the breakout. 

dharma



#1222 dougie

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:29 PM

Walking us down down down

#1223 dharma

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 02:31 PM

since the late 15 low,  gold has dropped below its 200dma 3 times, this last time just happened, but the other 2 times it was a buy signal.  this happens in bull markets where the 200 dma is a buy, not the case in bear markets

on the 15 minute charts we can now see 5 waves up in gld/gdx/gdxj

now we wait for the pullback and these highs taken out

dharma

avi   https://www.elliottw...1805161840.html



#1224 dharma

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:38 PM

cots

http://news.goldseek.../1526671702.php yes , the large specs reduced their long exposure even more, and increased their short position. the commercials added substantial longs while reducing their short exposure. this is a bullish cot

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#1225 Smithy

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:13 PM

Thanks for that, Dharma.

 

Interestingly the hedgies (large spec) % bulls is 65%; The last important % low before this was Dec 12th of last year at 68% which was the previous major price low. So we're in the zone and a little bit more so.

 

Conversely to find comparable commercials with so few % short position we have to go back even earlier to the July 2017 lower low.

 

Lastly open interest is a gauge of sentiment and it is down at 488,000 - lows not seen since last Dec.

 

So while the COT is a blunt instrument, over the last few weeks it has moved increasingly in the bulls favor and is currently at the levels of previous major price lows.



#1226 senorBS

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 08:10 AM

Thanks for that, Dharma.

 

Interestingly the hedgies (large spec) % bulls is 65%; The last important % low before this was Dec 12th of last year at 68% which was the previous major price low. So we're in the zone and a little bit more so.

 

Conversely to find comparable commercials with so few % short position we have to go back even earlier to the July 2017 lower low.

 

Lastly open interest is a gauge of sentiment and it is down at 488,000 - lows not seen since last Dec.

 

So while the COT is a blunt instrument, over the last few weeks it has moved increasingly in the bulls favor and is currently at the levels of previous major price lows.

Thanks to you and Dharma on the COT analysis, just another very solid piece of evidence for a potential key low forming in this area, and da beat goes on

 

Senor



#1227 senorBS

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 09:20 AM

It is interesting and important to note that gold rallied $150 from the July low and $100 from the Dec low, also daily RSI in gold is NOW at nearly the same oversold levels as seen at those two bottoms. In addition the DSI sentiment is in the teens AND this time around the miners have been outperforming gold and registering bullish divergences - something that did NOT happen at those Dec and July bottoms. Also the CRB is "leading" as well as it holds nicely above 200 and should again head higher once this consolidation has completed, GSR appears to have topped big picture and is breaking down (bullish as well), the 4-5 year miner basing pattern is likely ending and is supportive of a huge upside move IMO. There are never any guarantees but IMO the weight of evidence in the metals sector is solidly (probably decisively) bullish and I remain about 50% long and will look to add on further confirmation of a low.

 

Senor



#1228 jabat

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 09:56 AM

Cdelanley

 

Silver big picture.  This is my primary count.  Obviously, if we drop below 15.63 (a good stop level) I'll have to re-evaluate. But this is how I see it right now.

I'm very bullish silver in the next 2-3 years

 QSIPrimaryAnalysisMay181326PM1day.png

 

 



#1229 senorBS

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 10:06 AM

 

Cdelanley

 

Silver big picture.  This is my primary count.  Obviously, if we drop below 15.63 (a good stop level) I'll have to re-evaluate. But this is how I see it right now.

I'm very bullish silver in the next 2-3 years

 QSIPrimaryAnalysisMay181326PM1day.png

 

 

 

Si amigo, fully agree as that is my "preferred" count as well

 

Senor



#1230 Smithy

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 10:16 AM

The case expressed above is that last Thurs $1284.9 spot was a low; if that is correct we'll need to see gold move up next week. A daily close above $1296 would help the bulls. If the price fails my next candidate for a low is around $1260.