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emerging wave 3


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#1391 senorBS

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 11:40 AM

fed meeting the 12th , as a general observation, the gold market declines into the meeting and then comes out the upside after the meeting.  qt is going to slow down the economy. taking money out of the system , by cutting back on its balance sheet and raising rates, is eventually going to slow the economy down.  the fed is between a rock and a hard place.   as they are bedded in hotel california, they can never leave the markets.  they will be behind the curve as inflation starts to exert itself on the world economy more and more.   and yet to prepare for the next recession they have to have room to lower rates. its been experienced by the eu , negative rates dont work.  very interesting juncture here. got gold? got silver? w/another 10dsi reading this week for gold   a bottom is being put in. 

dharma

G7 today and tomorrow, lots of trade strife and not gettin along happening, June 12 is Korea summit as well, and Fed, big time convergence it appears

 

Senor



#1392 goldfungus

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 11:59 AM

 

fed meeting the 12th , as a general observation, the gold market declines into the meeting and then comes out the upside after the meeting.  qt is going to slow down the economy. taking money out of the system , by cutting back on its balance sheet and raising rates, is eventually going to slow the economy down.  the fed is between a rock and a hard place.   as they are bedded in hotel california, they can never leave the markets.  they will be behind the curve as inflation starts to exert itself on the world economy more and more.   and yet to prepare for the next recession they have to have room to lower rates. its been experienced by the eu , negative rates dont work.  very interesting juncture here. got gold? got silver? w/another 10dsi reading this week for gold   a bottom is being put in. 

dharma

G7 today and tomorrow, lots of trade strife and not gettin along happening, June 12 is Korea summit as well, and Fed, big time convergence it appears

 

Senor

 

Don't forget ECB and BOJ next week. I agree with Mr. Santelli, that could be the straw.



#1393 gannman

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 03:55 PM

i am not really a cot guy my interpretation is it was pretty bearish 

 

as i said i  am not a  cot guy


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#1394 Smithy

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 04:39 PM

You can see this week's gold COT here.

 

http://snalaska.com/...t/charts/GC.png

 

From a contrarian sentiment view the falling OI is broadly bullish (money is preferring other markets to gold), as is the diminishing gold comms short position. Overall, nothing to get excited about. Summer doldrums.



#1395 dharma

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 05:18 PM

sentiment the dsi got down to 10 (again ) for gold the last 3 days it has been at 14 folks this is quite bullish

the cot didnt say much to me this week , the large specs  have less exposure, and much less from the long side over the last month or so

and yes the dockett is full g7 - why cant we all get along, did you see trump  cross check some dude to get to the front for the group photo! 

fed wednesday, and yes ecb thursday, and boj friday. these guys are out of bullets they are trying to raise rates , so this long in the tooth cycle starts going south , they can lower rates to help stimulate.  (not saying i agree w/all of this , BUT this is the thinking.)  there are inflationary pressures on the market oil used for just about everything. copper for housing etc. and food for human consumption. are all in rising trends.   just remember smoot hawley was passed at  exactly the wrong time. cementing the depression, so if you are looking for wisdom from politicians , good luck w/that.    senor pass the popcorn next week is the big cb show. 

and then db , italy , greece , spain etc 

dharma


Edited by dharma, 08 June 2018 - 05:19 PM.


#1396 jabat

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Posted 09 June 2018 - 08:42 AM

From other forum-

Sid Norris has been utilizing a custom made 7.4 year Hurst Cycle model on silver programed into the Sentient Trader Software. That model has been able to project fairly tight date range for near -term swing highs and lows over the pas 2 years in the precious metals quite well.

Currently the model is projecting that a large cycle (34 weeks) trough is due right about now, and may have already occurred in Silver, gold, platinum and PM miners.

Here is the screen shot of the current silver analysis

 

Hurst-966.jpg

 



#1397 senorBS

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Posted 09 June 2018 - 02:55 PM

 

From other forum-

Sid Norris has been utilizing a custom made 7.4 year Hurst Cycle model on silver programed into the Sentient Trader Software. That model has been able to project fairly tight date range for near -term swing highs and lows over the pas 2 years in the precious metals quite well.

Currently the model is projecting that a large cycle (34 weeks) trough is due right about now, and may have already occurred in Silver, gold, platinum and PM miners.

Here is the screen shot of the current silver analysis

 

Hurst-966.jpg

 

 

Thx for that, I think worse case is you could see 1-3% lower at some time next week given that IMO significant volatility is likely. However when the dust settles I strongly favor a key low will occur (if not already in place) and it starts becoming a decent bit more obvious

 

Senor



#1398 jabat

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 07:55 AM

Please find enclosed the link to above article by Sid Norris

https://elliottwavep...tion-in-silver/



#1399 dharma

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 10:11 AM

at this point silver is stronger than gold  this guy is telling us that physical is now the lead dog http://elliottwaveplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Silver-starting-Feb-1998-7.4.yr-2-1-model-Peaks-Troughs-No-Repins-with-composite-Line.jpg   then this article came out  https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/swiss-government-pension-fund-buy-gold-bars-worth-some-700-million   is the paper market going to be in the back seat or will it still remain the lead dog.  in a real bull people want physical. . in this sideways market the paper market has been the lead dog.   certainly there is something stirring. 

since the last financial crises , which was debt related , the debt has skyrocketed. the feds balance sheet(if you can call it that) has ballooned out. raising rates and cutting the balance sheet will create liquidity issues.  which could bring on the next crises.   going to be an interesting week

oh and no one has ever won a trade war. remember the effects of smoot hawley!

raising rates at this juncture imo , will be bullish for gold , i believe we are at a similar juncture as dec fo 15.  

dharma



#1400 gannman

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:09 AM

just watching the dollar i  think it needs one more run up to 95 before an important top 

 

we will see


feeling mellow with the yellow metal