1565 replies to this topic

[dharma]

seems to me we are in the window for a low in gold based on the seasonal charts http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html

gold has made new lows here silver/gdx/ gdxj have not creating positive divergences

gdxj has not even made new lows for the week

i have support @ 1261, 1277  

seems to me when we could nt hold 1309 yesterday, the bears got bold.  oversold now  lets see if we can start to find some footing

dollar rally not to new highs for the move

lets see if the divergences can spark a rally, not the usual bounce

dharma

i am waiting behind the woodshed to see if anyone shows up. if so i buy  if not i wait , hands in pockets. 

Edited by dharma, 15 June 2018 - 11:12 AM.

[jabat]

 

[dharma]

cots 

http://news.goldseek.../1529091083.php

the significant factor for me is the commercials increased silver shorts significantly 30k  of course today could have taken care of that

dharma 

once in a long while cots reveal something significant

[Smithy]

[Smithy]

The tightest BB in 8 years presages a big move. Can we presume it's up?

 

[Smithy]

[gannman]

one thing i see here is that while gld is making a lower low

 

than it did in mid may the time segmented volume and the 

 

daily macd are higher is a positive.  gld imo is going lower

 

 but if these divergences hold up then i think we are actually

 

ready for a solid rally. i am willing  be patient here to see 

 

if we can hold these divergences as gld goes lower

 

its all a big fwiw  take it all with a grain of salt 

[gannman]

and just to be clear what i am looking for is an explosion. not some pitty pat 11 dollar moves

 

i am looking for a quick 200 run in the metal when it happens

Edited by gannman, 16 June 2018 - 09:51 AM.

[Smithy]

Looking at this week's silver COT report, as of last Tuesday the commercials got to a large short position fast enough to give a clear sell signal in my COT trading system.

 

Silver has dropped $0.75 since then, which greatly reduces the signal (assumes comms closing out some shorts, taking profits), but this kind of thing is not usually fulfilled in 3 trading days, it is usually longer term than that.

 

The gold COT doesn't reveal too much of anything.

[dharma]

Looking at this week's silver COT report, as of last Tuesday the commercials got to a large short position fast enough to give a clear sell signal in my COT trading system.

 

Silver has dropped $0.75 since then, which greatly reduces the signal (assumes comms closing out some shorts, taking profits), but this kind of thing is not usually fulfilled in 3 trading days, it is usually longer term than that.

 

The gold COT doesn't reveal too much of anything.

yes, i saw the cots and the commercials had increased their short positions substantially in silver. no doubt. it seems to me that a 3.44 % drop in silver on friday ,the commercials used the opportunity to cover alot of those shorts.  the cot is really short term . it seems to me that their shorts were worked off. gold made new lows , nothing else did. . we are now oversold. w/positive intermarket divergences.   lets see if we can put in a bottom. 1277, 1261 are great support.   and seasonally we are in the window for a low. i am not bearish here.  in addition, longer term raising rates will cause a recession longer term. so sooner or later qt and the fed cutting its balance sheet. will have consequences.  in the short term, here and now we are oversold. lets see if we have a bottoming process. also, i noted that india is pretty much out of the market in june. 

dharma