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emerging wave 3


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#151 dougie

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 10:01 PM

This could be the start of a 3 up

#152 Russ

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Posted 13 January 2018 - 12:20 AM

 

Why are the gold stocks lagging the price of gold now?  Nugt is 34, it should be up around 40 based on last September's gold price.

In Fast Moving Markets NUGT actually moves MORE that 3X the underlying asset

 

In range-bound or choppy markets NUGT will decay and lose value even as the underlying asset remains unchanged

This is Called Slippage

 

Russ - so there is NO HISTORICAL relationship between this type of trading instrument and the underlying asset

 

In trending markets you will be able to look at 'short-term' correlations only-in choppy or range-bound markets FORGET ABOUT IT!

 

To properly answer your question there is the HUI/GOLD ratio chart - miners have dropped slightly in their ratio to gold since September:

 

http://stockcharts.c...221&a=311041004

 

Thanks for you reply Stubaby,  but if you look at HUI which is a pure major Gold stock index you will see that that index has exactly the same pattern as NUGT, in that neither one could even get back to their Oct. highs whereas Gold almost made it up to it's September high. 


Edited by Russ, 13 January 2018 - 12:21 AM.

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#153 gannman

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Posted 14 January 2018 - 03:15 AM

i see the cot was pretty negative on friday  fwiw


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#154 dharma

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Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:19 AM

 

Why are the gold stocks lagging the price of gold now?  Nugt is 34, it should be up around 40 based on last September's gold price.

In Fast Moving Markets NUGT actually moves MORE that 3X the underlying asset

 

In range-bound or choppy markets NUGT will decay and lose value even as the underlying asset remains unchanged

This is Called Slippage

 

Russ - so there is NO HISTORICAL relationship between this type of trading instrument and the underlying asset

 

In trending markets you will be able to look at 'short-term' correlations only-in choppy or range-bound markets FORGET ABOUT IT!

 

To properly answer your question there is the HUI/GOLD ratio chart - miners have dropped slightly in their ratio to gold since September:

 

http://stockcharts.c...221&a=311041004

 

true, the thing is the psychology of the environment is also a key. its why i talk about money velocity. if money velocity is rising , its a signal that inflation is here . we have been in a declining money velocity environment since 96 , as a result miners have lost ground vs gold. when money velocity begins to rise this will entice institutional investors into the sector.  until then, miners will remain in the gutter. i see the atmosphere changing , slowly slowly in the sector.   miners are cheap vs all metrics. vs gold they have lost considerable ground. for example.   they will regain their stature as the environment changes from deflation /stagflation. there are several factors to consider.i am not going to get into that now, i will only say the crb is indicating a change to the present environment and miners have been stretched far in the other direction.   i believe 18 will be the transitional year.  so at some point miners will run vs gold  there is alot of catching up to do. 

 

the cots were bearish on friday.  sometimes not often the commercials get overrun. it happened in 79 , and in this present time  w/the dubai quattro and shanghai exchange there is the possibility  it can happen again. i would nt bank on it here and now though 

dharma

something has to go, it will be the dollar. it will be jettisoned. lower the dollar=debt is less


Edited by dharma, 15 January 2018 - 10:22 AM.


#155 senorBS

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:04 AM

I am pondering if a large gaily 5-wave rally from the Dec lows ended this morning. IMO it certainly can be counted that way in GLD-GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU with SLV ending its 5th wave Friday. It could yet be more bullish with this being a 3 that soon resumes but 5 up is now "worst case" IMO. We also could do a quick and shallow wave 2 that takes prices back to prev. 4th wave support which is the area of last weeks lows. Interesting juncture yet overall very bullish IMO, 



#156 senorBS

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:08 AM

Off topic here but I have to think a stock market 5th wave bubble is in its very late stages as S&P weekly RSI is the highest/most overbought EVER per my charts which go back to 1972 - somethings got to give here and FWIW I did establish a SMALL ETF S&P short position this morning - as always DYODD

 

Senor



#157 dharma

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 10:36 AM

I am pondering if a large gaily 5-wave rally from the Dec lows ended this morning. IMO it certainly can be counted that way in GLD-GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU with SLV ending its 5th wave Friday. It could yet be more bullish with this being a 3 that soon resumes but 5 up is now "worst case" IMO. We also could do a quick and shallow wave 2 that takes prices back to prev. 4th wave support which is the area of last weeks lows. Interesting juncture yet overall very bullish IMO, 

that is how i am counting it , fwiw, 5 ended  although chinese new year  gold buying will continue into  the chinese new years. the chinese gold buyers go on holiday feb 15th -21 and that is when  a larger correction will occur.  so here , i am an observer.  it could have finished 3 w/5 to come.  right now demand is solid for the metal. the miners are still functioning under decreasing money velocity. so they have not been set free. w/all the signs of inflation rising , i expect that to change at some point.   i am looking for a top in feb and then this thing to run into the april/may window. much like 16 .   there is good support at 1320 and better support at 1300

dharma

it is just such a clear 5 


Edited by dharma, 16 January 2018 - 10:38 AM.


#158 dougie

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 11:08 AM

I am pondering if a large gaily 5-wave rally from the Dec lows ended this morning. IMO it certainly can be counted that way in GLD-GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU with SLV ending its 5th wave Friday. It could yet be more bullish with this being a 3 that soon resumes but 5 up is now "worst case" IMO. We also could do a quick and shallow wave 2 that takes prices back to prev. 4th wave support which is the area of last weeks lows. Interesting juncture yet overall very bullish IMO,


Yes that seems to be the best count and confirming evidence in various indicators. Might we not see a deep 2.

#159 senorBS

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 12:24 PM

 

I am pondering if a large gaily 5-wave rally from the Dec lows ended this morning. IMO it certainly can be counted that way in GLD-GDX-GDXJ-HUI-XAU with SLV ending its 5th wave Friday. It could yet be more bullish with this being a 3 that soon resumes but 5 up is now "worst case" IMO. We also could do a quick and shallow wave 2 that takes prices back to prev. 4th wave support which is the area of last weeks lows. Interesting juncture yet overall very bullish IMO,


Yes that seems to be the best count and confirming evidence in various indicators. Might we not see a deep 2.

 

would be surprised if we did more that a 38% retrace as IMO this is a ii of 3 with the deeper wave 2 having bottomed in Dec of 2016 in the GDX



#160 gannman

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 02:04 PM

it is clear that wave 3 up started dec 12. minimum target for gdx is 40 and gdxj is 65. those are very very 

 

conservative targets. time to just sit hold tight and enjoy the move imo which is what i will be doing 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal