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#171 Russ

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 04:35 PM

Financial Editor Michael Campbell on Armstrong... 
"Two years ago Martin Armstrong’s Computer Model predicted the Trump Presidential win and the Brexit vote. In 2013 at the World Outlook Financial Conference, Martin gave the date in February, 2014 for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This year Marty’s model predicted the independence vote in Catalonia - but that wasn’t the one that blew me away.

In September, I asked Marty about Bitcoin. He told me it was tough to get a read because of the lack of historical trading data and volume numbers. With that in mind, he said the short-term chart looked like the uptrend could carry much further than most people expected but – and it was a big BUT – his computer model was forecasting a top starting the week of December 18. (The actual peak was December 17th and 18th.)  

I don’t know why I was surprised. I’ve been following Marty’s model since 1983 and in that time it has accurately predicted so many major events from the date of the fall of the Berlin Wall to the top of the Nikkei Index in 1989.

I could go on but allow me to share one more story. Forgive me if you’ve heard me tell it before but it’s worth repeating. The first time I saw the documentary about Marty - The Forecaster – in 2014 I was shocked to see a slide from our 1998 World Outlook Conference in one of the scenes.

The slide read:

  • 1998 Collapse of Russia
  • 1999 Low in oil and gold
  • 2000 technology collapse (like railroads in 1907)
  • 2002 Bottom US share market
  • 2007 Real Estate Bubble – Oil hits $100
  • 2009 Start of Sovereign Debt Crisis
  • 2011 – 2015 Japan Economic Decline
  • Euro begins to crack due to debt crisis
  • 2015.75 – Sovereign Debt Big Bang

There it was…all of it happened…absolutely amazing – so maybe I shouldn’t have been surprised with the Bitcoin call.    

So What Now

Regular attendees of the World Outlook Financial Conference heard Marty’s forecast in 2013 that the Dow Jones was on its way to 18,000 and once breaking that barrier would hit 23,700, which it did this year. And when it broke through that number – another major move to the upside would take place.  In November, in anticipation of the speed of which the markets are moving, Marty published a new report called How To Trade A Vertical Market... obviously great timing given the Dow just added the fastest 1000 points in history. But for how long and how far?

We’ll get the answer this year as Marty’s model has already predicted that 2018 will feature a Panic Cycle, which could come shortly after the World Outlook Conference. More importantly The Panic Cycle will feature major moves in both directions depending on the specific market. As Marty says, Panic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on the wrong side of the market, so obviously it’s essential to be on the right side in order to protect yourself and profit from what’s coming.

Adding to the volatility is that Marty forecasts 2018 as the beginning of the Monetary Crisis Cycle, which impacts every market.

We’re already seeing it in the weakness of the US dollar and the accompanying strength of the euro and to a lesser extent the loonie. But is the US dollar weakness an opportunity to buy? Conversely is the euro strength an opportunity to play it to go down? Get those questions right and you can make a lot of money.  

Marty’s Summation

This is going to be a crazy year that seems to be divided into two trends in many markets but not all.”  And by the way, he is responding to a ton of requests, including one from me, and he is producing a special report on Canada that will be available at the Outlook Conference.

Marty will be with me Friday night, February 2nd and again on Saturday afternoon, February 3rd.   We’ll cover stocks, gold, interest rates, the bond market, currencies and oil."


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#172 dharma

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Posted 16 January 2018 - 07:50 PM

 

 

 

Why are the gold stocks lagging the price of gold now?  Nugt is 34, it should be up around 40 based on last September's gold price.

In Fast Moving Markets NUGT actually moves MORE that 3X the underlying asset

 

In range-bound or choppy markets NUGT will decay and lose value even as the underlying asset remains unchanged

This is Called Slippage

 

Russ - so there is NO HISTORICAL relationship between this type of trading instrument and the underlying asset

 

In trending markets you will be able to look at 'short-term' correlations only-in choppy or range-bound markets FORGET ABOUT IT!

 

To properly answer your question there is the HUI/GOLD ratio chart - miners have dropped slightly in their ratio to gold since September:

 

http://stockcharts.c...221&a=311041004

 

true, the thing is the psychology of the environment is also a key. its why i talk about money velocity. if money velocity is rising , its a signal that inflation is here . we have been in a declining money velocity environment since 96 , as a result miners have lost ground vs gold. when money velocity begins to rise this will entice institutional investors into the sector.  until then, miners will remain in the gutter. i see the atmosphere changing , slowly slowly in the sector.   miners are cheap vs all metrics. vs gold they have lost considerable ground. for example.   they will regain their stature as the environment changes from deflation /stagflation. there are several factors to consider.i am not going to get into that now, i will only say the crb is indicating a change to the present environment and miners have been stretched far in the other direction.   i believe 18 will be the transitional year.  so at some point miners will run vs gold  there is alot of catching up to do. 

 

the cots were bearish on friday.  sometimes not often the commercials get overrun. it happened in 79 , and in this present time  w/the dubai quattro and shanghai exchange there is the possibility  it can happen again. i would nt bank on it here and now though 

dharma

something has to go, it will be the dollar. it will be jettisoned. lower the dollar=debt is less

 

What's your take on MA's latest Dharma?.... QUESTION: Mr. Armsyrong; Thank you for an eye-opening conference. Can’t wait for this year. You said 2018 was a Panic Cycle Year and that it would be unlikely to create an outside reversal in the Dow, but we should expect wild times ahead. Is this panic cycle impacting many other markets as well?

JV

ANSWER: Yes. This is the beginning of the Monetary Crisis Cycle that will go into 2021. That is probably where we will see the dollar rally break the world monetary system. This year, we should expect most markets to test BOTH sides of the game so pay attention to the Global Market Watch and the Reversals. This will tell us when the trends shift. There will be the classic fool who thinks that just because the euro finally exceed last year’s high or gold has rallied that this is it and that means the next four years will be the same.

Sling-Shot-R.gifPanic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on either the long or short side. You always have to trap the majority in order to create the slingshot to the upside of the waterfall to the downside. This is why they remain fools for they rush in based upon a few day’s price action. So far, everything is running its course. We are finally getting closer to the 125 threshold of resistance in the euro and the pound sterling has rallied with many starting to bet that BREXIT will not happen. Buying the Euro because interest rates are expected to rise with the ECB backing off of QE is just not being thought through rationally. QE has FAILED to stimulate the economy after nearly 10 years, and all it has done is subsidize EU member states. Rates will rise when they start to have to sell to real buyers. Then the sentiment will shift mid-year and we will test the opposite side.

This is going to be a crazy year that seems to be divided into two trends in many markets (not all). We are going to issue the 2018 Canada Report, 2018 Gold Report, 2018 stock market report as quickly as possible. The Canada Report will be available at the Vancouver event in February. I will also be the keynote speaker this year at the Hack Miami 2018programmer’s conference May 19-21, where I will be delivering the lecture on the future and AI Programming. Socrates is the only system out there that writes actual reports on its own.

 

at this point as in 16 armstrong missed the gold rally.  that is known and is fact.  it is possible that 16 was an A (1) and 17 was B(2) and we are in C here (3)its unknown at this point.  we will cross that bridge later in the year, as armstrong says.  for now we are in rally mode and i am going w/that. and you russ

dharma



#173 Russ

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 12:46 AM

 

 

 

 

Why are the gold stocks lagging the price of gold now?  Nugt is 34, it should be up around 40 based on last September's gold price.

In Fast Moving Markets NUGT actually moves MORE that 3X the underlying asset

 

In range-bound or choppy markets NUGT will decay and lose value even as the underlying asset remains unchanged

This is Called Slippage

 

Russ - so there is NO HISTORICAL relationship between this type of trading instrument and the underlying asset

 

In trending markets you will be able to look at 'short-term' correlations only-in choppy or range-bound markets FORGET ABOUT IT!

 

To properly answer your question there is the HUI/GOLD ratio chart - miners have dropped slightly in their ratio to gold since September:

 

http://stockcharts.c...221&a=311041004

 

true, the thing is the psychology of the environment is also a key. its why i talk about money velocity. if money velocity is rising , its a signal that inflation is here . we have been in a declining money velocity environment since 96 , as a result miners have lost ground vs gold. when money velocity begins to rise this will entice institutional investors into the sector.  until then, miners will remain in the gutter. i see the atmosphere changing , slowly slowly in the sector.   miners are cheap vs all metrics. vs gold they have lost considerable ground. for example.   they will regain their stature as the environment changes from deflation /stagflation. there are several factors to consider.i am not going to get into that now, i will only say the crb is indicating a change to the present environment and miners have been stretched far in the other direction.   i believe 18 will be the transitional year.  so at some point miners will run vs gold  there is alot of catching up to do. 

 

the cots were bearish on friday.  sometimes not often the commercials get overrun. it happened in 79 , and in this present time  w/the dubai quattro and shanghai exchange there is the possibility  it can happen again. i would nt bank on it here and now though 

dharma

something has to go, it will be the dollar. it will be jettisoned. lower the dollar=debt is less

 

What's your take on MA's latest Dharma?.... QUESTION: Mr. Armsyrong; Thank you for an eye-opening conference. Can’t wait for this year. You said 2018 was a Panic Cycle Year and that it would be unlikely to create an outside reversal in the Dow, but we should expect wild times ahead. Is this panic cycle impacting many other markets as well?

JV

ANSWER: Yes. This is the beginning of the Monetary Crisis Cycle that will go into 2021. That is probably where we will see the dollar rally break the world monetary system. This year, we should expect most markets to test BOTH sides of the game so pay attention to the Global Market Watch and the Reversals. This will tell us when the trends shift. There will be the classic fool who thinks that just because the euro finally exceed last year’s high or gold has rallied that this is it and that means the next four years will be the same.

Sling-Shot-R.gifPanic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on either the long or short side. You always have to trap the majority in order to create the slingshot to the upside of the waterfall to the downside. This is why they remain fools for they rush in based upon a few day’s price action. So far, everything is running its course. We are finally getting closer to the 125 threshold of resistance in the euro and the pound sterling has rallied with many starting to bet that BREXIT will not happen. Buying the Euro because interest rates are expected to rise with the ECB backing off of QE is just not being thought through rationally. QE has FAILED to stimulate the economy after nearly 10 years, and all it has done is subsidize EU member states. Rates will rise when they start to have to sell to real buyers. Then the sentiment will shift mid-year and we will test the opposite side.

This is going to be a crazy year that seems to be divided into two trends in many markets (not all). We are going to issue the 2018 Canada Report, 2018 Gold Report, 2018 stock market report as quickly as possible. The Canada Report will be available at the Vancouver event in February. I will also be the keynote speaker this year at the Hack Miami 2018programmer’s conference May 19-21, where I will be delivering the lecture on the future and AI Programming. Socrates is the only system out there that writes actual reports on its own.

 

at this point as in 16 armstrong missed the gold rally.  that is known and is fact.  it is possible that 16 was an A (1) and 17 was B(2) and we are in C here (3)its unknown at this point.  we will cross that bridge later in the year, as armstrong says.  for now we are in rally mode and i am going w/that. and you russ

dharma

 

Yes, XAU looks like it should keep going up into early March. Note, this is just tradingview software which is not as accurate as my tradestation but both softwares are in agreement of an early or mid march high for Xau. 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#174 dougie

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 01:12 AM

Volume coming in here might be a 3

#175 dougie

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 12:01 PM

Some neg divergences at the Gdx highs
Is Senor bs count right and that was 5 of I?

#176 senorBS

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 12:24 PM

Some neg divergences at the Gdx highs
Is Senor bs count right and that was 5 of I?

it remains a "possible count but so does the 3rd wave, I think I favor the 3rd by 60/40 over the 5 up FWIW

 

Senor



#177 dharma

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 12:29 PM

 

Some neg divergences at the Gdx highs
Is Senor bs count right and that was 5 of I?

it remains a "possible count but so does the 3rd wave, I think I favor the 3rd by 60/40 over the 5 up FWIW

 

Senor

 

my thinking as well,  i am prepared to sit here. and wait.  we have gone up 100 and the chinese new years is still in front of us.  ie the wind is at the bulls back  

the dollar seems to be on a slippery slope too.  the hardest thing to do is to just sit

dharma



#178 dougie

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 05:52 PM

Are commodities reaching a ST or IT high here:



#179 senorBS

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Posted 17 January 2018 - 08:58 PM

 

 

Some neg divergences at the Gdx highs
Is Senor bs count right and that was 5 of I?

it remains a "possible count but so does the 3rd wave, I think I favor the 3rd by 60/40 over the 5 up FWIW

 

Senor

 

my thinking as well,  i am prepared to sit here. and wait.  we have gone up 100 and the chinese new years is still in front of us.  ie the wind is at the bulls back  

the dollar seems to be on a slippery slope too.  the hardest thing to do is to just sit

dharma

 

late day action puts the 3rd wave vs 5th top situation at 50/50 IMO



#180 dougie

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 11:29 AM

[quote name="senorBS" post="776285" timestamp="1516240689"][quote name="dharma" post="776252" timestamp="1516210157"]
[quote name="senorBS" post="776250" timestamp="1516209872"]
[quote name="dougie" post="776246" timestamp="1516208507"]
Some neg divergences at the Gdx highs
Is Senor bs count right and that was 5 of I?
[/quote]

[/quote]
late day action puts the 3rd wave vs 5th top situation at 50/50 IMO[/quote]

Curious what you saw to say that Senor?