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emerging wave 3


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#321 senorBS

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 11:06 AM

so as this interest rate/fiscal insanity drama unfolds I ponder WHERE does the investor/trader money go. This IMO is not good for the stock mkt so I see downward pressure there, and who in their right mind buys 10 yr or longer Treasuries (the usual "go to") when fiscal insanity prevails? Hmmmm, and again this is not near term timing stuff but food for thought for the next 1-2 yrs

 

BSing away

 

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#322 Smithy

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 11:26 AM

Seems that rising rates will eventually cause a lot of pain.



#323 senorBS

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 11:47 AM

from another board a Fred Hickey quote, don't know who he is but thought it interesting and timely:

 

"Note GDX short ratio is now above 1.5. Last time that happened (& only other time in last 5 1/2 yrs) was in July 2017. From that point gold went on a nearly $130oz rip higher($1220-$1350,up 11%) in just 8 weeks while GDX soared 21%.If another rip now -starts at $1300+"



#324 dharma

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:05 PM

gdx/gdxj/gld all have hourly divergences now,  to repeat. i use a 9bar wilder rsi.  i have used this rsi for about 38 yrs. and found it fast enough to get in at lows, not often but it does happen there are whipsaws.  at some point in the 70s bull, the banksters got long the miners.  now i dont know, BUT i think that is what this down wave was about , ie throwing the baby out w/the bath water for investors trying to make margin calls on stock market rout, and the banksters naked shorting gold stocks.  i am going to enter the waters at some point today. as i believe  this is a very deep 2of 3 in the miners. while gold fared much better.  all the indicators that i watch are flashing inflation @some point this year. plus the tax cuts and the new budget will insure that to be the case. couple that w/rising rates and a falling dollar and  you have the makings of an ugly situation.  now of course the latter fundamental talk , i just gave ensures nothing right here right now. 

i am trading off the rsi divergences i will put stops a certain % below the existing lows, so i will only , hopefully, get stopped out if the trend continues, not investment advice. its your money i know nothing

dharma



#325 senorBS

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:09 PM

gdx/gdxj/gld all have hourly divergences now,  to repeat. i use a 9bar wilder rsi.  i have used this rsi for about 38 yrs. and found it fast enough to get in at lows, not often but it does happen there are whipsaws.  at some point in the 70s bull, the banksters got long the miners.  now i dont know, BUT i think that is what this down wave was about , ie throwing the baby out w/the bath water for investors trying to make margin calls on stock market rout, and the banksters naked shorting gold stocks.  i am going to enter the waters at some point today. as i believe  this is a very deep 2of 3 in the miners. while gold fared much better.  all the indicators that i watch are flashing inflation @some point this year. plus the tax cuts and the new budget will insure that to be the case. couple that w/rising rates and a falling dollar and  you have the makings of an ugly situation.  now of course the latter fundamental talk , i just gave ensures nothing right here right now. 

i am trading off the rsi divergences i will put stops a certain % below the existing lows, so i will only , hopefully, get stopped out if the trend continues, not investment advice. its your money i know nothing

dharma

agree amigo, bot a little this morning, now about 20% long. I am just being careful as I am allowing for a big stock market flush that "might" bring down the miners one more time, however the HUI/Gold ratio which recently made new lows since the 2016 5-wave rally high (my take) could be very close to ending its flush/big correction. muy interesting juncture

 

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#326 senorBS

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:19 PM

interesting that GDXJ showing strength so far today and big caps like aem/nem/gg WEAK - attempt to make mining sector look bearish? in any case just bot initial small NEM tranche at 36.84, as always DYODD



#327 dharma

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:51 PM

interesting that GDXJ showing strength so far today and big caps like aem/nem/gg WEAK - attempt to make mining sector look bearish? in any case just bot initial small NEM tranche at 36.84, as always DYODD

the mining sector is very compressed vs gold and vs spx when this turns, it could be a rocket ride.  hadik has said , when talking about cycles -90% of the move could occur in the last 10% of time of the cycle.  i suspect that sort of thing takes place at some point in the miner sector. 

https://crushthestre.../tag/eric-hadik

dharma



#328 senorBS

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 01:00 PM

 

interesting that GDXJ showing strength so far today and big caps like aem/nem/gg WEAK - attempt to make mining sector look bearish? in any case just bot initial small NEM tranche at 36.84, as always DYODD

the mining sector is very compressed vs gold and vs spx when this turns, it could be a rocket ride.  hadik has said , when talking about cycles -90% of the move could occur in the last 10% of time of the cycle.  i suspect that sort of thing takes place at some point in the miner sector. 

https://crushthestre.../tag/eric-hadik

dharma

 

yeah, I think the HUI/gold ratios recent new decline low speaks to that "compression" in chart form, we see

 

Senor



#329 gannman

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 03:53 PM

looking at the market at the rate we are going we will be at the 2009 lows by the end of feb. interesting to watch nice to not be in it 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#330 gannman

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 03:56 PM

just a thought here more along fundamental lines but i am wondering if what is going on in the general market will at some points push some of the public

 

into a store of value like gold. it would probably take a crash of titantic proportions to do that and maybe not even then


feeling mellow with the yellow metal