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emerging wave 3


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#341 senorBS

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 04:03 PM

 

 

gdx has taken out its december lows.  the gold/gdx ratio is at very compressed levels, which isnt to say  it cant become more compressed. gold is a good distance from its december lows. will there be a capitulation in the miners.? it seems the market is on a search and destroy mission. i could nt pull the trigger yesterday.  so far more hourly divergences and very oversold on the daily , but still groping for a bottom

i am not a fan , but he has stuck to this call

http://www.ganngloba...d32483469d37e8d

at some point w/this compression , i have to think the miners will race. the question is when and from what level??? interesting to me that gdxj has not taken out its december low.  while gdx has

waiting 

dharma

the chickens are coming home to roost as the gvt continues its utter disregard for any semblance of fiscal sanity, for now EVERYTHING is in sell mode, at some point miners will catch a bid but we may have a couple day capitulation along with stocks in general. NEM is holding up better than most but there is some serious carnage going on here and it may get really ugly into the close, keeping the rest of my powder dry for now. There is a count where this is the latter stages of wave 2 in GDX and it bottoms modestly below 20.89 in C of an ABC X ABC double zigzag decline, however I can''t rule out it may try to go below the Dec 2016 low at 18.58.

 

so GDX did take out that 20.89 low by 5 ticks and GDXJ failed to take out comparable low by 4 ticks, so IF GDX had 5 up from Dec 2016 to Feb 2017 then a double zig could have ended today or could work a bit lower next week. NEM coming back very nicely at 36.50, very interesting juncture, just holding what I have

 

so basically that GDX key series of lows and support area from 20.89 to 21.20-30 from 2017 has held "so far" as we had a spike low at 20.84 but reversed and closed strong near 21.43! Nem went positive and closed near 36.77. how and where GDX bottomed today is extremely interesting. Maybe it nothing more than a short term low but it could be much more than that. uno day at a time

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 09 February 2018 - 04:07 PM.


#342 dharma

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:11 PM

what was interesting to me was the december lows were a significant low,  normally traders place stops below those significant lows.   on friday in the gdx we took out the december lows and it appeared there were no//ti few stops there . 

also the gdxj did not confirm the lows in the gdx. gdxj held above its december lows

dharma



#343 dougie

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 09:03 PM

gdx has taken out its december lows.  the gold/gdx ratio is at very compressed levels, which isnt to say  it cant become more compressed. gold is a good distance from its december lows. will there be a capitulation in the miners.? it seems the market is on a search and destroy mission. i could nt pull the trigger yesterday.  so far more hourly divergences and very oversold on the daily , but still groping for a bottom
i am not a fan , but he has stuck to this call
http://www.ganngloba...d32483469d37e8d
at some point w/this compression , i have to think the miners will race. the question is when and from what level??? interesting to me that gdxj has not taken out its december low.  while gdx has
waiting 
dharma

the chickens are coming home to roost as the gvt continues its utter disregard for any semblance of fiscal sanity, for now EVERYTHING is in sell mode, at some point miners will catch a bid but we may have a couple day capitulation along with stocks in general. NEM is holding up better than most but there is some serious carnage going on here and it may get really ugly into the close, keeping the rest of my powder dry for now. There is a count where this is the latter stages of wave 2 in GDX and it bottoms modestly below 20.89 in C of an ABC X ABC double zigzag decline, however I can''t rule out it may try to go below the Dec 2016 low at 18.58.
prospective lows keep getting lower and lower.
I recall some on this forum criticizing me for questioning the idea we were in a 3 up...not saying it was you

Edited by dougie, 10 February 2018 - 09:04 PM.


#344 dougie

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 09:33 PM

No positive divergences that I can see
ABC up off the lows

How low can she go??

#345 johngeorge

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 03:36 PM

"How low can she go??" dougie  I think the small miners have 66% further to go down yet.   There will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when gold drops below 1300 on its way to 1200.  Just my opinion.  At that time I pour all the fiat I have into physical.


Peace
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#346 Smithy

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 04:22 PM

My reading of the entrails for gold this weekend is that it is possible the low was in last Thursday at 1307, there is a good case for it. 

 

But on balance I'm gonna wait and see if we get another modest leg down. I will get antsy around 1285-95 if it gets there.

 

I'm probably wrong above 1319 and 1322; above 1350 one can safely saddle up for the long haul. All IMHO.



#347 gannman

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:48 PM

https://kingworldnew...n-leeb-2-10-18/

 

an interview by dr stephen leeb . a smart cookie . he called the huge rally in oil stocks which was fueled by the rise in oil up to 140 dollars 

 

so i dont take him lightly fwiw


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#348 gannman

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:01 PM

also one other point if you look at the rally in the miners beginning of 2016 it wasnt just the dollar the dollar had a relatively 

 

small drop yet the miners soared. we have had a lot bigger drop since the beginning of 2017 till now and yet the miners have tanked.

 

so my conclusion is when the waves are ready gold is going up does not need a huge drop in the dollar 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#349 senorBS

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:34 PM

thx Ganman, great interview that I agree with, decent pop in gold so far tonight, IMO so far gold and silver declines to last weeks lows are ABC's and possibly done, the miners are really interesting with last weeks utter thrashing that saw GDX/HUI/SIL barely take out the Dec lows and that "might" be an important low but way too early to tell

 

Senor



#350 senorBS

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:09 PM

1325 last, either in a near term 3 or C basis hourly charts, did what it had to "so far"

 

Senor