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emerging wave 3


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#351 johngeorge

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:15 PM

When the junior miners start to move up in earnest I will be buying Rob McEwen.  

Stock symbol MUX.  Full disclosure.  I own MUX. 


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#352 dougie

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 11:19 PM

"How low can she go??" dougie  I think the small miners have 66% further to go down yet.   There will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when gold drops below 1300 on its way to 1200.  Just my opinion.  At that time I pour all the fiat I have into physical.


Russ but you are holding your longs???

#353 Smithy

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:38 AM

Senor, you got an opinion on crude?



#354 senorBS

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:23 AM

Senor, you got an opinion on crude?

no, all focus on metals for now



#355 senorBS

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:29 AM

 

 

 

gdx has taken out its december lows.  the gold/gdx ratio is at very compressed levels, which isnt to say  it cant become more compressed. gold is a good distance from its december lows. will there be a capitulation in the miners.? it seems the market is on a search and destroy mission. i could nt pull the trigger yesterday.  so far more hourly divergences and very oversold on the daily , but still groping for a bottom

i am not a fan , but he has stuck to this call

http://www.ganngloba...d32483469d37e8d

at some point w/this compression , i have to think the miners will race. the question is when and from what level??? interesting to me that gdxj has not taken out its december low.  while gdx has

waiting 

dharma

the chickens are coming home to roost as the gvt continues its utter disregard for any semblance of fiscal sanity, for now EVERYTHING is in sell mode, at some point miners will catch a bid but we may have a couple day capitulation along with stocks in general. NEM is holding up better than most but there is some serious carnage going on here and it may get really ugly into the close, keeping the rest of my powder dry for now. There is a count where this is the latter stages of wave 2 in GDX and it bottoms modestly below 20.89 in C of an ABC X ABC double zigzag decline, however I can''t rule out it may try to go below the Dec 2016 low at 18.58.

 

so GDX did take out that 20.89 low by 5 ticks and GDXJ failed to take out comparable low by 4 ticks, so IF GDX had 5 up from Dec 2016 to Feb 2017 then a double zig could have ended today or could work a bit lower next week. NEM coming back very nicely at 36.50, very interesting juncture, just holding what I have

 

so basically that GDX key series of lows and support area from 20.89 to 21.20-30 from 2017 has held "so far" as we had a spike low at 20.84 but reversed and closed strong near 21.43! Nem went positive and closed near 36.77. how and where GDX bottomed today is extremely interesting. Maybe it nothing more than a short term low but it could be much more than that. uno day at a time

 

Senor

 

so GDX/HUI/SIL all took out the Dec lows with significant daily technical divergences (HUI and GDX) and a significant oversold condition. So far we are having a solid bounce, the "how" of this bounce will help tell us a lot about whether this low was very important or just a temporary bottom. I remain about 25% long for now, could exit quickly or add more depending how the rally evolves (or does not). I am married to no outcome here, I see the "possibility" of a low and nothing more

 

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#356 dharma

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:10 AM

briefly , in 80 the top of the market was put in when comex changed the rules on silver,  no buying allowed only selling.   what i am seeing here is naked shorting of the miners.  the market has become quite compressed. i am itching to buy back what i sold . but  i am waiting to see which course the market takes . imview we finished 3 of c of 2 of this down leg. 4-5 yet to come.  or the less favored is the down move finished friday  . if gdx gets above a certain price i will add if not i will wait for 5 to finish. there are no momo divergences in the market.  gdxj did not follow gdx to new lows , so there is a divergence there.  so i am waiting to see which way this works out. .

gold has held up well and has hold onto at least 1/2 of its gains off the december lows.  

fridays cots as of tueday http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1518208377.php showed the commercials adding some longs and closing shorts. in the 70s i remember sinclair telling me the banksters had gotten long the miners. i just dont remember the point. and they sold before the jan 80 top. and the miners went up for another 9-10 months .

i too am focused on the miners there is real value here . this compression has made the miners compelling

 

dharma



#357 senorBS

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:29 AM

briefly , in 80 the top of the market was put in when comex changed the rules on silver,  no buying allowed only selling.   what i am seeing here is naked shorting of the miners.  the market has become quite compressed. i am itching to buy back what i sold . but  i am waiting to see which course the market takes . imview we finished 3 of c of 2 of this down leg. 4-5 yet to come.  or the less favored is the down move finished friday  . if gdx gets above a certain price i will add if not i will wait for 5 to finish. there are no momo divergences in the market.  gdxj did not follow gdx to new lows , so there is a divergence there.  so i am waiting to see which way this works out. .

gold has held up well and has hold onto at least 1/2 of its gains off the december lows.  

fridays cots as of tueday http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1518208377.php showed the commercials adding some longs and closing shorts. in the 70s i remember sinclair telling me the banksters had gotten long the miners. i just dont remember the point. and they sold before the jan 80 top. and the miners went up for another 9-10 months .

i too am focused on the miners there is real value here . this compression has made the miners compelling

 

dharma

all those Miner/Gold ratios going to new lows is representative of that "compression" IMO and "possibly" the latter stages of a huge correction of the 2016 upside run. Agree on the naked shorting, the volatility if stocks the past several days like HL and CDE is crazy, but that's the environment we have - looks like they are havin their fun with NEM today and GG is runnin


Edited by senorBS, 12 February 2018 - 11:29 AM.


#358 senorBS

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:33 AM

I don't want to get too short term oriented but 15-min GDX chart might be ending 5 up here near 22, we see

 

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#359 dharma

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:16 PM

I don't want to get too short term oriented but 15-min GDX chart might be ending 5 up here near 22, we see

 

Senor

its one of the things i am looking for ie bullish structure.  this low was very unusual there were no divergences.   and it didnt run even more once the december lows were taken out , this means to me that the market is most probably sold out.  and yes, i am watching that chart too.  using the gdxj for confirmation.  these are quite interesting markets.  from where ever and when ever this bottoms i expect a triple digit percentage gain the miners.  

dharma



#360 johngeorge

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

 

"How low can she go??" dougie  I think the small miners have 66% further to go down yet.   There will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when gold drops below 1300 on its way to 1200.  Just my opinion.  At that time I pour all the fiat I have into physical.


Russ but you are holding your longs???

 

dougie, in the event that question was for me I am holding my longs.  They are long long term stuff I plan to hold until about 2025.  At some point it gets sold and will use the proceeds for physical.

 

Best of luck to all. 


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