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emerging wave 3


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#361 gannman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 04:42 PM

what i can contribute here is the time segmented volume on this sector looks good

 

implying to me we are going to see a significant run here stuff is being accumulated


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#362 dougie

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:48 PM

 

 

"How low can she go??" dougie  I think the small miners have 66% further to go down yet.   There will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth when gold drops below 1300 on its way to 1200.  Just my opinion.  At that time I pour all the fiat I have into physical.


Russ but you are holding your longs???

 

dougie, in the event that question was for me I am holding my longs.  They are long long term stuff I plan to hold until about 2025.  At some point it gets sold and will use the proceeds for physical.

 

Best of luck to all. 

 

JG yes, my apologies! Good for you on the solid LT hold.



#363 dougie

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:48 PM

 

I don't want to get too short term oriented but 15-min GDX chart might be ending 5 up here near 22, we see

 

Senor

its one of the things i am looking for ie bullish structure.  this low was very unusual there were no divergences.   and it didnt run even more once the december lows were taken out , this means to me that the market is most probably sold out.  and yes, i am watching that chart too.  using the gdxj for confirmation.  these are quite interesting markets.  from where ever and when ever this bottoms i expect a triple digit percentage gain the miners.  

dharma

 

I thoiught no divergences too but see that there were daily in GDX



#364 senorBS

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:58 PM

one thing that bothers me is that I think the S&P and NYA have clean big 5-wave drops (wave 1 or A) from the highs and are now rallying back t prev 4th wave resistance in wave 2 or B, my "concern" is that if the stock market has another big drop coming and miners may go down with stocks, of course correlations can change

 

Senor



#365 dougie

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:23 AM

I think so too Senor
Doubt this is the top in equity however

#366 johngeorge

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 03:29 AM

I think so too Senor
Doubt this is the top in equity however

 

dougie, looks to me like a 20% drop in broad market is quite likely in the Feb - April time period.    Agreed this is not the top.  We have more to go on the up side over the balance of the year. 


Peace
johngeorge

#367 johngeorge

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 03:38 AM

Nice little pop in gold this am.  Will it hold?  Certainly seems ready for an advance.  Will know all in the fullness of time.


Peace
johngeorge

#368 jabat

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 04:47 AM

gold02122018.png

 



#369 dharma

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:17 AM

it seems one of the things on trumps agenda is to lower bond prices. if bonds are lower the usa govt pays less to buy back bonds/or to pay off bond holders.  this comes after 37 years of bond bull market.  also , a lower dollar helps to accomplish this and since trump has taken office the dollar has hit the skids . the floor for the dollar/yen was 108 we broke through that this am w/that ratio putting in a h&s top. its tough to say definitively that the gdx put in a low. its way too early to make that sort of proclamation, unless of course you are on kwn. however, the action on friday was encouraging , the 5 wave advance off that low is also encouraging. of course zig zag corrections are 5-3-5  so nothing is definitive at this point .   in my 40 years of doing this i have never seen a crash in the broad market and the miners were not thrown out w.the bathwater.  my 1st taste of that was 87 i was short spx futures and long miners.  the long miners did not work , and were jettisoned.   from wherever we bottom on the miners, it will be an advance similar to 16  in terms of % age gain.  one has to access his/her tolerance for risk and how much exposure to risk one wants. i have still not added back what i sold , chomping at the bit to do so , but discipline is the order of the day.  so far the march hike is still very much on the table.    

i do see the miners under accumulation. by the big players.  its a process. mark up occurs when they get their fill

dharma



#370 dougie

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:57 PM

Some neg divergences here