1565 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Senor, gold has dropped  these last few days and closed Friday at spot $1335. Is there a price level that if gold dropped to would cause you to reevaluate the short/medium bullish outlook?  I'm thinking a close below 1333 is a danger sign and below 1319 the immediate outlook is no longer bullish. 

Read what I just posted below as I think that explains my stance on the near term and big picture. Bottom line is that I think there is enough big picture bullish evidence IMO that I am not going to get overly concerned about the zig and zags of the near term charts. That does not mean I will ignore them is something very negative happens, but until that does I am bullish. And keep in mind I am 40% long which I believe prudent and not 80 or 100% yet.

 

Senor

[jabat]

http://realinvestmen...of-stagflation/

[jabat]

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[K Wave]

Staring to look more and more like Gold gonna be the one draggin' Silver back down....what we just saw was an EXTREMELY important pivot zone, and that big spike, followed by right shoulder of H&S on GLD chart, starting to look like big time breakout/fakeout, which aint bullish...

 

Bulls do not want to see 16.65 Silver be reclaimed by bears...

 

Again, until 128 taken out upside on GLD, not safe to just buy and hold for IT.....because if this starts to accelerate downside, Gold could still have a big swing leg downside yet to come.....

 

On the other hand, with the big cup w handle formation, this could also just be last fakeout down before launch on GLD....

 

In any event, using GLD 128 as the directional sign post should make things fairly easy....for Intermediate Term trading....

Edited by K Wave, 23 April 2018 - 08:20 AM.

[senorBS]

added some longs on this decline, back to 50% long

 

Senor

[gannman]

What I am thinking here is this since the decline starting late January

We did 3 waves down into Mar 20 and the rally since then is a wave iv

So if we drop into may 9 which is not fae away that would be 21 months

From top in Aug 2016. Something to look for because this rally is NOT

Impulsive we have NOT started wave 3 up yet imo all fwiw

[dharma]

agree w/you gann man and kwave.  my take is when you see these long tails or wicks. it shows big selling into the resistance areas. they are well defended  i think we now test the lows, and guessing, we break 1300 demoralize the bulls and then start up in earnest.  the move up does not look impulsive, and does not resemble a wave 3 . this down move should not last long ,into early may and then the impulsive wave up begins. the dollar looks like it needs one more rally to finish its pattern. so a falling dollar w/a rising gold price. 

patience and we are not talking about months here. days to weeks . 

this and the bus fare will get you on the bus fwiw

dharma 

the last peak coincided w/the end of buying for the indian festival

so  no immediate catalyst

the bond market has a large h&s top ! 

Edited by dharma, 23 April 2018 - 09:12 AM.

[dougie]

Really interesting area. Gotta say it has not looked impulsive up to me as I have commented.
One more deep trip down would surely do the work of disheartening folks sufficiently

On the other hand Senor is adding...

[dougie]

Still room for this to be a wave 4down in Gdx daily

Has not overlapped putative wave 1 up

[senorBS]

agree w/you gann man and kwave.  my take is when you see these long tails or wicks. it shows big selling into the resistance areas. they are well defended  i think we now test the lows, and guessing, we break 1300 demoralize the bulls and then start up in earnest.  the move up does not look impulsive, and does not resemble a wave 3 . this down move should not last long ,into early may and then the impulsive wave up begins. the dollar looks like it needs one more rally to finish its pattern. so a falling dollar w/a rising gold price. 

patience and we are not talking about months here. days to weeks . 

this and the bus fare will get you on the bus fwiw

dharma 

the last peak coincided w/the end of buying for the indian festival

so  no immediate catalyst

the bond market has a large h&s top ! 

Dharma, that could very well happen, however it would not surprise me that its just plain ugly and whether its 3 up or 5 up given the huge basing pattern we may not have anything impulsive until it really lets loose norte. Interest rates up again today to major new new highs, dollar new recovery highs since recent intermediate term low (may be ending double zigzag off lows), CRB testing from above 200 breakout area. another key juncture. NEM, AEM, GDX all currently down less than 1%, lets see how we close

 

Senor