From the link:
Hate to be bearish while the bull market continues, so far, unabated, but it can’t go up forever and at this time it appears most everyone is believing it can. The wackiness that often appears at tops has begun (bitcoin and its cousins), stocks tripling on name changes… If AMZN or GOOGL or TSLA or even AAPL were to split the stock now and scream up on the
“fundamental” of the split alone, I’d say we are in 1999. They haven’t split of course…but what the hell, we are in 1999 and I suspect 2000 is right around the corner.
For signals and a chart:
THE FLYING BULL STILL FLIES
The next couple of years will be interesting for sure.
We shall see how the opinion below plays out. I'm a ST trader, but I have already started paper work to covert some of my 401k funds into a Roth IRA and will do so every year as long as the new tax plan (rates) remain in place.
At some points during the next two years, investors will periodically be so eager to get out of the market that they will dump undervalued securities along with the most overpriced assets. However, most of the time they will be selling whatever will generate the highest capital gains since that is where the biggest savings will occur. Interestingly, it is short-term capital gains which have been drastically cut by the new tax law, rather than long-term capital gains. However, insightful investors know that once Democrats regain the House and probably the Senate at the beginning of 2019, followed probably by the White House in January 2021, tax rates for both short- and long-term gains will be increasing by some unknown amount. The contest will be who can figure this out before everyone else does, and we already know that it will be the wealthiest and most experienced investors who sell first while the average person will wait until they believe that breaking even is hopeless before they even consider selling. Thus, as usual, the rich will get richer while the hopeless middle class and many in the upper middle class will get poorer.
Steve Kaplan
