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Multi-timeframe Demark Signals

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#1 Geomean

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 01:15 PM

The monthly, weekly and daily SPX charts will print or will have printed various forms of DeMark trend exhaustion signals (TD Sequential, TD Combo, TD Analog) at the end of the week. This is a rare kind of alignment.  So the chances are increased that this time frame will print at least some sort of high.

 

Other work suggests that any high here will be of a short term variety.  The Hurst analysis generally points to a brief decline/choppy consolidation into mid-late January before the upward trend resumes.  EW counts and the Elliott 5/34 SMACD oscillator are consistent with a minuette or minute wave 3 wave high in minor wave I or III of intermediate 1 .   Indeed the Elliott oscillator higher highs keep forcing revised counts showing higher degree waves are not done.  The high 5/34 SMACD momentum readings at every degree of trend here strongly support a bullish view. If this is only a lower degree high there should be only modest decline or choppy period. 

 

The .618 extension of primary wave I high in April 2015 from the primary wave II low in January 2016 is at 2171.28 in the SPX, which has not quite been reached.  Various fib extensions from lower degree counts point to a 2770-80 target area for either minor 1 or minuet iii. 

 

The 1.618 extension of Primary wave I is at 4185.21 so if the count that we are in Primary wave III is correct, then it is more likely that this would be the end of minuet wave iii of minor wave 1.


Edited by Geomean, 27 December 2017 - 01:17 PM.

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#2 kssmibotm

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 03:40 PM

Geo, thanks for sharing the DeMark signals.  I don't believe I have ever seen EW counts applied to MACD oscillators.  Is this a common practice or something unique to you?



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#3 Geomean

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 09:37 AM

Dr. Bill Williams, Phd popularized the 5/34 simple MACD and he together with e-signal ran the computer runs to confirm.  (e-signal found 5/35 was the best but Williams thought the fib 5/34 was more logical.

 

Google "Elliott Oscillator" and you will find a lot of information on it's use.  It is helpful in determining the end of wave 4,  whether you are in a third wave, and whether the ends of a  wave c or wave 5 are at hand  Must have a chart with a time frame that covers the wave series one wants to review of 100-140 bars (2-3 standard deviations from the 34 bars).  So monthly and quarterly bars are needed for longer term analysis.  I've even tried it on yearly charts.  It's been a big help.  This high reading now strongly suggests that Prechter's count is not correct.


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#4 pedro

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 06:08 PM

kss ... see also Joe Taverna's  Eight Fold method over at Elliott Trader.

 

He uses the EWO much like Geo does.     He also emphasizes use of 140 bars in whatever timeframe is required to analyze a full impulse.

 

http://studyofcycles...-fold-path.html

 

And yes, RP is wrong again.


Edited by pedro, 28 December 2017 - 06:10 PM.


#5 SP500daytrader

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Posted 02 January 2018 - 06:17 PM

Hello traders and happy new year.

 

 

The time for (BTD) buying the dips is over... 

 

As Geomean mentined, we have TD (Demark) sell signals on several time frames (sequential and combo) combined with the pattern of 13 higher closing bars on both monthly and weekly chart (ATH's) suggesting it's time for a significant market correction. 

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