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#1 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 09:39 AM

Currently Neutral ............



#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 09:51 AM

The market is anticipating a resolution from the congress to avoid a shutdown as the House approved a bill to keep the government open:

https://www.washingt...m=.b18efa3adf72

 

However, it may fail in the Senate.



#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 10:04 AM

I see the up gap this morning will be filled later today................


Edited by redfoliage2, 19 January 2018 - 10:04 AM.


#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 11:06 AM

ST trading range for SAPX: 2770 - 2805 and the market is toppy here.  If the Senate is unable to get the stopgap bill passed today (wait and see till mid night) I see SPX will visit 2770 next week.


Edited by redfoliage2, 19 January 2018 - 11:14 AM.


#5 salam

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 11:13 AM

No gap and Go...Dow remains the drag down on the euphoria. IBM taking its weighting toll


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#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 12:22 PM

From my reading into the Washington politics the chance for the Senate stopgap bill to pass by midnight is much smaller than the chance to fail.   There won't be 60 votes there.



#7 12SPX

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 12:26 PM

From my reading into the Washington politics the chance for the Senate stopgap bill to pass by midnight is much smaller than the chance to fail.   There won't be 60 votes there.

Sorry what does that mean "much smaller" than "the chance to fail", sounds the same?



#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 12:37 PM

Okay.  Let's simplify it:  the chance to pass is much smaller than the chance to fail (comparing two probabilities).  Or the chance to pass is small (no comparisons).



#9 Rich C

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 12:52 PM

I think Congress is the new "Roman Coliseum", a show for the people.  If the senate does not act today, talk is they could act over the weekend and fund to mid Feb.

 

The problem is we used to have just 2 parties governing the country, and now both have splintered.  We have the establishment repubs who back Paul Ryan, and the reactionary repubs like the Tea Party wing and the Trump voters, then we have the establishment dems who voted for Hillary, and the progressive dems who backed Bernie (nearly equal to the Hillary voters).  Welcome to coalition government.  At least in Europe when the coalition fails, new elections are held and the voters get an opportunity to elect a new coalition to govern.  In the US, we've been a simple 2 party system for so long, and our elections at 2 and 4 year intervals worked out well.  Now, it is possible to have a coalition government that does not work, but we are stuck with it for 2 years to the next congressional election.  With only 2 nominal parties, people are voting for a coalition that will not work, totally oblivious to that fact.  

 

My guess is that something gets done by Sunday to avoid the shutdown, pushing it off to mid Feb.  DACA expires on March 5th.  I see mid Feb as a hard date.


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#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2018 - 01:17 PM

I think Congress is the new "Roman Coliseum", a show for the people.  If the senate does not act today, talk is they could act over the weekend and fund to mid Feb.

 

The problem is we used to have just 2 parties governing the country, and now both have splintered.  We have the establishment repubs who back Paul Ryan, and the reactionary repubs like the Tea Party wing and the Trump voters, then we have the establishment dems who voted for Hillary, and the progressive dems who backed Bernie (nearly equal to the Hillary voters).  Welcome to coalition government.  At least in Europe when the coalition fails, new elections are held and the voters get an opportunity to elect a new coalition to govern.  In the US, we've been a simple 2 party system for so long, and our elections at 2 and 4 year intervals worked out well.  Now, it is possible to have a coalition government that does not work, but we are stuck with it for 2 years to the next congressional election.  With only 2 nominal parties, people are voting for a coalition that will not work, totally oblivious to that fact.  

 

My guess is that something gets done by Sunday to avoid the shutdown, pushing it off to mid Feb.  DACA expires on March 5th.  I see mid Feb as a hard date.

If they cannot get a solution today I doubt there will be one on Sunday.  Prolonged shutdown did happen and could happen again.  As the traders are complacent buying calls today and expecting a solution before the midnight I see it's likely there will be a big gap down on Monday if the shutdown becomes reality.


Edited by redfoliage2, 19 January 2018 - 01:24 PM.