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Change in market character


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#1 NAV

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 09:58 AM

Three things:

 

1)  VIX exploding - close to 15 now !

2)  The pattern of parabolic advance where subsequent corrections tend to be smaller in both duration and amplitude is broken. 

3)  Largest fastest decline since Aug 2017.

 

No wonder the board is mum today. Even the regular bullish noise is absent.

 

For the first time since Aug 2017, bears can try their luck on the short side. There was absolutely no reason to short since then. There is absolutely no reason not to, right now. I will wait for a retrace and go short either today or latest by tomorrow.

 

Good luck trading !

 


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#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 10:02 AM

One more:  This market had not been down for two consecutive days since some time last year.  Now it looks it's going down big for the second day.  Last Friday I warned this market was going to have trouble very soon when the market was up big while my VST signal stayed at Neutral with internals negatively divergent.


Edited by redfoliage2, 30 January 2018 - 10:12 AM.


#3 NAV

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 10:07 AM

Now that every sucker is in the market right now, getting a bounce can be hard. It could be a hard one way selling.


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#4 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 10:08 AM

I would have thought that the day of the SofU address, they'd have held it.


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#5 CLK

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 10:19 AM

Island reversal, doubt we get much of a bounce.



#6 LarryT

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 10:22 AM

Was looking at 2800 to 2850 for a wave -3- high so if we have got it a little higher and a -4- wave off the February 2016 low is in play looking for a window of 2686 to 2570.

 

LT...d:^)


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#7 gm_general

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 11:12 AM

Multiyear VIX trend was broken to the upside today - this includes contact points of post Brexit and Thursday before election (when the direction changed).

Attached Thumbnails

  • vix_20180130_small.jpg


#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 11:24 AM

I would have thought that the day of the SofU address, they'd have held it.

Very likely...........



#9 NAV

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 11:31 AM

Shorted SPX 2830 with 2836.5 Stop. Shorting after many many months. Let's see how it goes...


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#10 trioderob

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 11:52 AM

dollar getting stronger vs world 

 

emerging markets tanking  - bringing fear 

 

look at EEM index