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Change in market character - part 2


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#1 NAV

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:52 AM

Dip buying not working - as simple as that.

 

Shorted QQQ at 167 with 167.8 stop via puts


Edited by NAV, 02 February 2018 - 09:53 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#2 NAV

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

Took profits at 166 on 1/3 position. I am expecting a 5% type crash scenario here. Will hold the rest for a sharp selloff today and next week.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#3 bighouse1006

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:11 AM

Nice!

#4 diogenes227

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:20 PM

Nothing like a trend on weekly option Friday in the "Fool's Game".

 

Just went through 150% with the SPY weekly 281 put  $15K+ per $10K traded..

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 bighouse1006

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:30 PM

Bounce comes Tuesday.

#6 diogenes227

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:34 PM

Bounce comes Tuesday.

 

Or any minute.  sweatingbullets.gif


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#7 bighouse1006

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 03:02 PM

There will be some great one day, one way trending moves over the next 3 weeks.

#8 NAV

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:24 PM

Top calling and shorting was all over the place on this board, the entire rally in 2017. When the market really breaks down, everyone wants to be a dip buyer.

 

I have observed this again and again. It's not that folks are either or bulls or bears. They are counter-trenders. When the market is going up, they want to short. When the market is going down they want to be long. Now where's the intellectual excitement in buying a market which is going up or shorting a market that is already going down ? That's why you see stubborn bears turn into dip buyers or start making bullish prognostications, when the market breaks down. It's fascinating human nature.

 

Anyway, i am holding my shorts. SPX 2673 and QQQ 155 look like logical medium term targets. It will all happen fast. There will be some crazy intraday volatility along the way.


Edited by NAV, 02 February 2018 - 09:26 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://tradernav.blogspot.com

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#9 NAV

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:30 PM

Again to re-iterate, the change in market character is as evident as broad daylight.

 

1) Break down of the parabola

2) Largest fastest decline since August

3) Dip buyers getting punished and pervasive dip buying sentiment.

4) Good earnings resulting in gap downs and big selloffs

5) Multi-day sustained selloffs.

6) Oversold MCO not producing a bounce

7) Explosion in VIX 

 

I can go on....


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://tradernav.blogspot.com

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV