Jump to content



Photo

Change in market character - part 2


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 15,728 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:52 AM

Dip buying not working - as simple as that.

 

Shorted QQQ at 167 with 167.8 stop via puts


Edited by NAV, 02 February 2018 - 09:53 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)

 

 


#2 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 15,728 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

Took profits at 166 on 1/3 position. I am expecting a 5% type crash scenario here. Will hold the rest for a sharp selloff today and next week.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)

 

 


#3 bighouse1006

bighouse1006

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 494 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:11 AM

Nice!

#4 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,425 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:20 PM

Nothing like a trend on weekly option Friday in the "Fool's Game".

 

Just went through 150% with the SPY weekly 281 put  $15K+ per $10K traded..

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#5 bighouse1006

bighouse1006

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 494 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:30 PM

Bounce comes Tuesday.

#6 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,425 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:34 PM

Bounce comes Tuesday.

 

Or any minute.  sweatingbullets.gif


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#7 bighouse1006

bighouse1006

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 494 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 03:02 PM

There will be some great one day, one way trending moves over the next 3 weeks.

#8 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 15,728 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:24 PM

Top calling and shorting was all over the place on this board, the entire rally in 2017. When the market really breaks down, everyone wants to be a dip buyer.

 

I have observed this again and again. It's not that folks are either or bulls or bears. They are counter-trenders. When the market is going up, they want to short. When the market is going down they want to be long. Now where's the intellectual excitement in buying a market which is going up or shorting a market that is already going down ? That's why you see stubborn bears turn into dip buyers or start making bullish prognostications, when the market breaks down. It's fascinating human nature.

 

Anyway, i am holding my shorts. SPX 2673 and QQQ 155 look like logical medium term targets. It will all happen fast. There will be some crazy intraday volatility along the way.


Edited by NAV, 02 February 2018 - 09:26 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)

 

 


#9 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 15,728 posts

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:30 PM

Again to re-iterate, the change in market character is as evident as broad daylight.

 

1) Break down of the parabola

2) Largest fastest decline since August

3) Dip buyers getting punished and pervasive dip buying sentiment.

4) Good earnings resulting in gap downs and big selloffs

5) Multi-day sustained selloffs.

6) Oversold MCO not producing a bounce

7) Explosion in VIX 

 

I can go on....


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)