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So far so good - part 2


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#1 NAV

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 09:59 AM

I shorted on Friday and covered on Monday crash - all posted in real-time here. I have had bigger winners than this, but one of my best trades in a 2-day timeframe. I posted in the same thread that the extreme MCO will produce a bounce. Not bragging, but i am again patting myself on my back for exiting right at the bottom and calling the bounce (instead of fearing 1987). Now the trend remains down and i do not "believe at this point" that we have seen the bottom. This bounce could go as high as 2730 and still remain in a downtrend. I have not yet pulled the trigger, but i will be shorting this rally either today or latest by tomorrow. If anything changes, i will post here.

 

SPX 2537 is the 200 day MA. It will tag that before this is all said and done.


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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 10:03 AM

why arent u long nav    ....es hit its 3rd rail at its 200 day ma and exploded 170 handles in a flash.....a huge bullish C wave has ended   ....now watch the sky    again



#3 NAV

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 10:08 AM

Today is WWW. 90% of the time it's a bottom on this day and not to be faded. I think this time it will be a top. I am willing to wager on that 10% odds as long as my system remains on a sell. If the rally extends and my technicals turn green, i will change my mind.


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#4 larryh

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

Hi Nav,

I am a newbie but have been following your great posts - thank you so much for your wisdom and great insight.

Question - if 2537 is the 38.2 level, wouldn't approx 2707 be the 50% retracement from the 2873 high?  

Would 2707 level be where you can expect a pullback again?

Thanks...



#5 NAV

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 10:41 AM

Hi Nav,

I am a newbie but have been following your great posts - thank you so much for your wisdom and great insight.

Question - if 2537 is the 38.2 level, wouldn't approx 2707 be the 50% retracement from the 2873 high?  

Would 2707 level be where you can expect a pullback again?

Thanks...

 

My view is technical analysis is not an exact science. It's very dynamic. It's very difficult to pin down a particular level and say "the bounce stops here". Human emotions does not stop at a particular level precisely. It always undershoots or overshoots. Now that we are in a bounce, i wait for a rally failure to short. I have certain patterns that i rely on to short it.

 

2707 is a good level where the rally could end. But there is nothing that prevents it to go higher to the 61.8% level. So what we need is a failure or rejection from that level. How you define that rejection is based on your system.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#6 CLK

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

I thought we would test the globex lows, did get the extra 50 point gap down but not to be. I hedged my Put spreads

with 5 points ITM to avoid some Vol loss. Still up 20% on the trade but account was over double at one point. 

 

I have closed some other Calls now, bought to close part of a Put spread and with INDU leading I think this bounce is almost done right here at the 50sma.



#7 NAV

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:23 PM

why arent u long nav    ....es hit its 3rd rail at its 200 day ma and exploded 170 handles in a flash.....a huge bullish C wave has ended   ....now watch the sky    again

 

Because my system is still short. Just now shorted SPX 2716 with 2722.6 stop. Will post here when my system turns bullish.

 

BTW SPX cash has not yet tested the 200 ma. Should happen in the next couple of days.


Edited by NAV, 07 February 2018 - 12:30 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#8 cycletimer

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:29 PM

NAV,

Congrats on your two-day trading profits.  I had a similar trade happen yesterday.  It was shocking to me really. I purchased $SPX calls at the open for the price of 33.50 (low was 33.30, previous close on Monday was 50.00).  Within 3 minutes my order executed to sell these at 49.00.  I was so shocked that I took the remainder of the day off.  Great trade, great timing, but it all happened so quickly, it scared me.  A profit actually scared me!  Your timing and execution on your trade was as close to perfection as a trader can get.

Today's high was 2727.  Did you tap that with a short-sale?  I was a wee bit early but I shorted about an hour ago, buying $SPX puts when market was trading around 2721 level.  I'm thinking what you're thinking, we make a high here before a 2-day swing down.



#9 NAV

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:51 PM

Thanks CT.

 

Covered 1/3 for 10 points - my usual trading drill. Will cover the rest 2/3 below 2593 or when my trailing stop gets taken out.

 

Adios for now.


Edited by NAV, 07 February 2018 - 12:51 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#10 beta

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:24 PM

Great work, NAV.   I see your TA skills are sharper than ever.   Good to see you posting again.


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