Jump to content



Photo

Markets on the edge of that deep abyss


  • Please log in to reply
12 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,904 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 10:50 AM

A fragile & jittery market that can quickly morph from a big decline into a tremendous CRASH

 

Watch that BOND auction later today. 

Almost certain the Senate and House will pass the bipartisan B Bill but any doubt will seriously affect the markets. May trade S&P after hours today.

 

....and always be ready for any geopolitical event, and continuing crap from those two crazy fools: N Korean Kim & Trump



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,904 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

VIX above 27, VXX near 50



#3 cycletimer

cycletimer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,307 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 11:51 AM

Market will trade like a bouncing ball for the foreseeable future.  At moments like this (with DOW -400+) shorts or put holders should cover and resort on the rallies.....Opportunists will buy calls here.  I just purchased the $SPX March 2675 calls @ 46.50.  Targeting 54-55 later today.... I DO agree with you overall, it's on the edge of abyss BUT we are in oversold territory and a heck of a bounce could commence for a 1/2 to full day before selling takes over again.


My early retirement journey (blog): https://firechecklist.net/

Twitter: @MrFireby2023

#4 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 15,988 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:00 PM

Market will trade like a bouncing ball for the foreseeable future.  At moments like this (with DOW -400+) shorts or put holders should cover and resort on the rallies.....Opportunists will buy calls here.  I just purchased the $SPX March 2675 calls @ 46.50.  Targeting 54-55 later today.... I DO agree with you overall, it's on the edge of abyss BUT we are in oversold territory and a heck of a bounce could commence for a 1/2 to full day before selling takes over again.

 

Hourly says no bottom yet.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,904 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:12 PM

Agree with NAV, don't see a medium to long term bottom in place.  

Don't rule out rallies to 2740; above that I will change my mind and look to trade long.

This is interesting:

"nvestors hoping the sudden volatility would stop and the stock market would get back to its bull run are probably realizing that was wishful thinking. Many market watchers zeroed in on the role of inverse ETFsthat short the VIX volatility index as a sign that this downturn was a freakish blip. But trading in ETFs designed to buy less volatile stocks, known as minimum volatility ETFs, are suggesting a trend more ominous right now: There's no place in the market that's safe to hide — at least not just yet. Stocks that fit a minimum volatility strategy are getting marked down almost as aggressively as the market as a whole.

Based on trading history, the VIX itself has signaled that volatility will not vanish. In a note published Thursday, DataTrek Research took a look at the ETFs designed for minimum volatility and found they are selling off not just alongside the market but almost as much. That leads DataTrek to the conclusion that there's no stock safe from big repricing"

https://www.cnbc.com...-rare-blip.html



#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,904 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:18 PM

CycleTimer, I just can't convince myself to buy options at these high volatility levels. Been thru too many option trades where swift decline in volatility = rapid premium disappearance, even when markets are moving in my direction. I prefer to trade the S&P & NQ Futures and it has been a scalper's delight to do so in these markets! 

Maybe I will consider SPY CALL spreads way above the market to capture some of that fat premium... but I am accumulating decent profits now from day-trading the index futures.



#7 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,208 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:26 PM

I think that was wave 2 ABC off the lows. Wave 3 going into Friday and Monday. Still looking for 2150.



#8 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 15,988 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:35 PM

CycleTimer, I just can't convince myself to buy options at these high volatility levels. Been thru too many option trades where swift decline in volatility = rapid premium disappearance, even when markets are moving in my direction. I prefer to trade the S&P & NQ Futures and it has been a scalper's delight to do so in these markets! 

Maybe I will consider SPY CALL spreads way above the market to capture some of that fat premium... but I am accumulating decent profits now from day-trading the index futures.

 I am used to seeing 1-2 cents bid/ask spread in SPY options. Just checked the spreads and it's whopping 20 cents for at-the-money puts. And if the trade goes against you and the vol implodes, then the trade can take a huge hit. I too prefer ETFs/Futures in this environment.


Edited by NAV, 08 February 2018 - 12:36 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#9 cycletimer

cycletimer

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,307 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 12:50 PM

I don't trade ETF options like SPY, I trade the actual index options like $SPX.  The spreads are wider but sine it's less contracts commissions are less.  


My early retirement journey (blog): https://firechecklist.net/

Twitter: @MrFireby2023

#10 qqqqtrdr

qqqqtrdr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,962 posts

Posted 08 February 2018 - 02:42 PM

Just waiting to see what happens here....  My charts still are bullish medium to long term...     Short term, I did get a ST buy signal yesterday...    This usually gives me a day to change positions to trade...    Got to see what the charts say tonight.... 

 

Barry


Edited by qqqqtrdr, 08 February 2018 - 02:42 PM.