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HISTORIC JUNCTURE

From a e-wave perspective

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#1 NAV

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 11:46 PM

From a e-wave perspective we stand at the crossroads of a historic junction in stock markets. I generally don't like using hyperboles and creating drama. I post it as i see it. As i have said many times, i don't run any service and i don't have a vested interest in my posts. I saw a 10% crash last week, i posted it, i traded it and made nice profits. This was the only crash call i have made in the last 10 years and got it right. Bottomline, if i am saying "HISTORIC", it is indeed historic what we are about to witness.

 

Let's cut to the chase. The 2015 correction on SPX was 2134-1810 = 324 points. 2018 correction so far has been 2872-2532 = 340 points. The 2015 correction took about 9 months to complete. This correction took about 9 days. So this is the largest fastest correction since this entire rally began in 2009. This has two implications:

 

1) The most obvious one is that 2015 correction was a wave 4 correction and we have been in a wave 5 since then. This has been the most favourite count among the e-wavers. But it may not be the correct one, if you look at the momentum of the advance since then and the NYSE cumulative A/D line. But for argument sake, if we consider this as the correct count, then the bull market from 2009 is over and we start a primary degree wave 2 correction. A clue that this is transpiring is if we go down and break below the 200 MA on SPX and plunge from there or sustain below that.

 

2) However there is a second scenario. Da_cheif, Tony caldaro and a couple of others are in this camp. In this scenario, a primary degree wave 1 ended in 2015 and the 324 points correction in 2015 was a primary degree wave 2. Currently we are in a primary degree wave 3 since then. If this count is true, then the correction we witnessed so far is a intermediate term wave 2 and a intermediate term wave 3 (of Primary 3) will begin here. This is a hyper-bullish scenario and is very much possible. A clue to this is, if the market rallies to new recovery highs in a "V" or slingshot fashion. 

 

Whatever transpires, do not be on the wrong side of the history. This is gonna be a doozy !. Do not get influenced by the experts, gurus, CNBC, money managers et al. Follow the price wherever it goes. It's going to be a huge money making opportunity.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)

 

 


#2 bighouse1006

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 12:17 AM

I'm not an ewave expert. I have also seen other counts that could be possible. Some guys count this as a wave 4 within a wave 1 of 3 with a wave 2 to come after a new all time high. I'm not arguing semantics. I only know that we bounced off the 200 dma after a 10% decline. Yes this decline came very quickly but it is not unprecedented. I have seen this in other indices, in the exact same time frame with a larger percentage move. My trading time frames are very short, and I don't care which way the market moves as long as I can exploit it. I did not see one ewaver call this move, I see them labeling their charts after the fact.

#3 NAV

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 12:46 AM

 

 

Some guys count this as a wave 4 within a wave 1 of 3 with a wave 2 to come after a new all time high.

 

The size of this correction relative to wave 2 is so large that you cannot label it as wave 4. Structure and degree are very important in e-wave and sadly most don't pay attention to it.

 

 

 

I did not see one ewaver call this move, I see them labeling their charts after the fact. 

 

You cannot. There is no technical analysis methodology which can predict the future. Charts only tell you about what has already happened and what is happening. Based on that you create a probabilistic view of the future. Keyword is "probabilistic". e-wave is good to identify bifurcation points. Again those who claim they identified the top are serial top callers who conveniently forget all the prior bad calls they had made.

 

 

 

My trading time frames are very short, and I don't care which way the market moves as long as I can exploit it.

 

Same here.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)

 

 


#4 bighouse1006

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 12:57 AM

Nav take a look at the Feb 6 entry on his Twitter.
https://mobile.twitt.../PUGStockMarket

#5 NAV

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 02:16 AM

Nav take a look at the Feb 6 entry on his Twitter.
https://mobile.twitt.../PUGStockMarket

 

His wave (4) is too large relative to wave (2). Structurally that looks bad. His wave (4) and wave (2) are clearly not of the same degree. As a matter of fact his wave (4) is even larger than his P4. Something to chew on.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

"No warning can save people determined to grow suddenly rich" - Lord Overstone  (The great crypto mania of 2017)

 

 


#6 andr99

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:21 AM

I have followed e-wave counts for a few years when I believed it was something good. In all those years I saw every program based on Elliott I came across besides  all the counts of the ''best experts around the world'' miserably fail to reach their projections. The last most recent example ? ''ABC about done'' for Deutsche Bank....and infact DB rolled down below the C bottom as I predicted, but really I should say ''it crashed'' one light year below the C bottom thus making that count uncorrect......as expected. Something seen one billion times before. That's why I follow just myself carefully avoiding any Elliott and similars and I have found that such a thing is very good for me. I did not expect an spx crash like that, but I was expecting a correction starting at the end of Jan and that was correct for the kind of precision I need in my swing trading around well capitalized stocks in Europe. I would like to add that for what I' seeing and I won' t tell how I came to my conclusions, the ongoing correction is not over. We should bounce from here, but on the whole it's not over. When it's over we will see and tell, but whatever the current wave ''they'' are counting what i' m very confident of is that in 2019 we will see the bull's end and the start of the bear. And this too I won' t say how I got to......although I' m quite sure confirmation will come from the usual hyperbolic projections the usual Elliott experts will provide when markets mark their final top.   


Edited by andr99, 10 February 2018 - 04:24 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N.....though partly langbardic


#7 Darris

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 09:56 AM

When compared to what the $spx did the last two weeks, and mainly tapping the 200 sma, there is a decent relative similarity of the rapid drop on the $compq touching the 200 ema on April 4th in the year 2000 as the internet bubble burst.  Probably going to be as simple as assessing the direction off Geronimo Powell decision to press on with rates on March 21st, or to blink like Janet did in September 2015 after the market temper tantrum August 17th-25th 2015.  Maybe IBM Watson will trigger a full value buy back next week, LOL.

 

On a side note, Rydex Nova 1.5x Spx long flipper capitulated on a massive 400 mil bet from 2840 to 2620, and even had 80 mil added at 2873.



#8 CLK

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 11:43 AM

Level 1 and 2 circuit breakers the same day has SPX down to 2095. 



#9 Getting-Smarter

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Posted 14 February 2018 - 11:45 AM

Nav, Appreciate the wave count, and clear concise thoughts you shared!