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Waves and Cycles


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#1 LarryT

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 12:28 PM

The February 2016 low at 1810 is a wave four low off the 2009 low wave five in progress. Within wave five a wave -4- is in progress with a possibility the low is in at 2532 however odds are that was just a wave "a" of wave -4- and a 50% retrace wave "b" toward 2700 or so stalls and a wave "c" of -4- drops toward a 38% retrace of the in progress wave five at 2470 area. The "c" wave may also only drop 62% with 2498 or so for the final wave -4- low. Need more price and time action to determine which pattern is in play. In any event looking for March to May to complete a 72 year type cycle top with 3070 area the high probability top area.

 

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#2 beta

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 01:18 PM

Hi Larry, I've also considered your wave 5 count.  However, a few anomalies make me question this scenario:

  • wave length from 2012 low to 2015 peak (wave 3) has already been matched by second wave length from 2016 low to 2018 peak (wave 5)
  • impulsive nature of this 2-week wave does not fit characteristics of a corrective "A" wave
  • wave 5 patterns tend to maintain parabolic trend line until completed; SPX weekly closed below the parabolic trendline off 2016 low -- although $COMPQ weekly closed above

Most importantly, the entire sequence off late jan 2018 top appears to have the characteristics of an impulsive wave (structure, duration).  In any event, we should certainly know by March how this is unfolding. 


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#3 da_cheif

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:42 PM

impulsive nature of the decline..   thats what they sed about 08  09...,5 wave C waves gettsem every time...



#4 LarryT

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:20 PM

Hi Larry, I've also considered your wave 5 count.  However, a few anomalies make me question this scenario: Thanks for the comments, always happy to discuss wave theory.

  • wave length from 2012 low to 2015 peak (wave 3) has already been matched by second wave length from 2016 low to 2018 peak (wave 5)

The wave TWO low occurred in 2011 at 1074.77 wave THREE ran from 1074 to 2134 May 2015. There is only one requirement for wave THREE, it cannot be the shortest wave so forget about any problem with wave THREE.

  • impulsive nature of this 2-week wave does not fit characteristics of a corrective "A" wave
  • wave 5 patterns tend to maintain parabolic trend line until completed; SPX weekly closed below the parabolic trendline off 2016 low -- although $COMPQ weekly closed above

Most importantly, the entire sequence off late jan 2018 top appears to have the characteristics of an impulsive wave (structure, duration).  In any event, we should certainly know by March how this is unfolding. 

 

A wave FOUR ZIG-ZAG pattern will have wave "a" impulsive five waves down and so will wave "c" so no problem there either. The FIVE wave most typical target is the 2.618 level near 3070 however fifth waves can be parabolic and extend to the 4.25 extension at 3690. Not very probable but the January 26 high "could" be all of wave FIVE.

 

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#5 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 12:01 PM

Outside the waves theory in the real world I don't see the peak of January will be surpassed this year or next unless the Fed is to stop raising rate and pump more liquidity.


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 February 2018 - 12:05 PM.


#6 da_cheif

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 12:23 PM

that story has been told over and over again for years....watch the sky



#7 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 10:57 PM

Outside the waves theory in the real world I don't see the peak of January will be surpassed this year or next unless the Fed is to stop raising rate and pump more liquidity.

However, I see the January high to be re-tested to form a double top. 


Edited by redfoliage2, 11 February 2018 - 11:03 PM.


#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 11:12 PM

 

Outside the waves theory in the real world I don't see the peak of January will be surpassed this year or next unless the Fed is to stop raising rate and pump more liquidity.

However, I see the January high to be re-tested to form a double top and that's where I see the bull market finally ends.