3 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

"Last week, I said that when I referred to a "meaningful top", I was thinking in terms of a big 5-10% correction. After this week, that's what we got and that makes our near perfect record for the Actual Position Poll picking tops and bottoms look not so perfect. Still, it's only been wrong about 4% of the time. Frankly, we should have paid less attention to the statistics and more attention to the nature of the market--- a healthy market that has run long and hard can easily sustain an occasional 5-10% correction, without even damaging the trend. I noted that we were a HAIR from a "Secret Hedge Fund" Buy and that with the weakness in GLOBEX, we thought a proper Buy would be forthcoming. I did not think that the correction was over. I dd think that we were about to get a bounce, though, and that after that, we might re-visit the lows and maybe poke a bit through them. After that, we head for new highs. Well, we traded down hard on Monday, tested the 200-day Tuesday in GLOBEX, then rallied smartly, then traded down to test the 200-day, and then bounced 107 points (at this writing). I am NOT Bearish and I think a lot of people are WAY too Beared-up. The price action has been TYPICAL of a market low. More importantly, we have a "Secret Hedge Fund" Buy and have been on one for days. We are also on a Relative VIX Buy, which is one of our favorite bottom Spotters. This is persistently high. This is "motive" for a rally. I think that there's a very good chance that the low is in. I will allow for the possibility that we may have another down leg (mostly likely after a substantial rally from current levels), but I'm not willing to bet on it. For tomorrow, all the P/C's except the OEX are very high. This is also "motive" for a rally. The OBSG is flashing a Buy too and we also have another "Tipping Point" Buy. The WSS Surveyees are very Bulled up, too, and that's Short-term Bullish. It likely won't be easy trading, but the odds strongly favor higher prices."

[Venatici]

Thank you for sharing!

[JamesE]

What he ^^ said! 👍

[OEXCHAOS]