Jump to content



Photo

Inflection point


  • Please log in to reply
22 replies to this topic

#11 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,619 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:20 PM

Internals are weak at the new day highs, IWM not confirming either. I think Friday will see 

profit taking, the reverse of last Friday's short covering.



#12 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,355 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:25 PM

 

SPX forming a Doji on the daily chart.  I see a ST top here.

But if SPX closes today above 2720 then it can still go higher.................

 

There is a good chance for a double top scenario, i.e. it may go up to fill the down gaps left there and retrieve the entire loss before anything.


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 February 2018 - 01:29 PM.


#13 bighouse1006

bighouse1006

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 560 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 01:28 PM


 
The idea here is to teach a lesson (punish) to those near month put buyers and have those trades expire worthless.
 
Happens like clock work every month....especially when it "feels" like a crash is in progress.
 
Fib[/quote]

True, in my work today's close is important. Yesterday's candlestick defines the range going forward. If we close above the top of yesterday's candlestick base today we will most likely stay above it tomorrow. Even during a dip intraday tomorrow. This is for the IWM.

#14 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,964 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 02:44 PM

 

 

today or tomorrow is a top, i think. 

 

The idea here is to teach a lesson (punish) to those near month put buyers and have those trades expire worthless.

 

Happens like clock work every month....especially when it "feels" like a crash is in progress.

 

Fib

 

 

 

I thought a five waves down was impulsive, meaning you need at least a B wave and C to finish the correction.

Looks like you are saying 5 waves and back to new highs. 

 

 

Wave C, of an irregular flat, also unwinds in 5 waves...they "feel like" 3rd waves, but diverge internally and are *usually* accompanied with a hammer stick.

 

We'll see how it goes, but if this were a counter trend rally, it would had halted at the .382 retracement level at SPX 2692...and we didn't.

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

Technical Watch Subscriptions

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page


#15 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,077 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 03:06 PM

With 2725 now taken out, i will be looking to buy dips from tomorrow.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#16 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,355 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 03:56 PM

With this fast pace up we should see SPX at 2750 tomorrow to have the gap just above filled.  BTW, NYMO finally became positive today...............


Edited by redfoliage2, 15 February 2018 - 04:06 PM.


#17 12SPX

12SPX

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 497 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:12 PM

 

 

SPX forming a Doji on the daily chart.  I see a ST top here.

But if SPX closes today above 2720 then it can still go higher.................

 

There is a good chance for a double top scenario, i.e. it may go up to fill the down gaps left there and retrieve the entire loss before anything.

 

So the big question is will be a straight up scenario similar to the move in January or are we going to see volatility with a stair step move.  Any opinion?



#18 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,619 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 05:23 PM

 

 

 

today or tomorrow is a top, i think. 

 

The idea here is to teach a lesson (punish) to those near month put buyers and have those trades expire worthless.

 

Happens like clock work every month....especially when it "feels" like a crash is in progress.

 

Fib

 

 

 

I thought a five waves down was impulsive, meaning you need at least a B wave and C to finish the correction.

Looks like you are saying 5 waves and back to new highs. 

 

 

Wave C, of an irregular flat, also unwinds in 5 waves...they "feel like" 3rd waves, but diverge internally and are *usually* accompanied with a hammer stick.

 

We'll see how it goes, but if this were a counter trend rally, it would had halted at the .382 retracement level at SPX 2692...and we didn't.

 

Fib

 

 

 

Ok, so then SPX 3,000 should be next and old highs will go fast like what happened today. Tough to spot irregular flats if the B wave is 

hundreds of points higher than the top of A.



#19 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,964 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 06:19 PM

 

 

 

 

today or tomorrow is a top, i think. 

 

The idea here is to teach a lesson (punish) to those near month put buyers and have those trades expire worthless.

 

Happens like clock work every month....especially when it "feels" like a crash is in progress.

 

I thought a five waves down was impulsive, meaning you need at least a B wave and C to finish the correction.

Looks like you are saying 5 waves and back to new highs.

 

Wave C, of an irregular flat, also unwinds in 5 waves...they "feel like" 3rd waves, but diverge internally and are *usually* accompanied with a hammer stick.

 

We'll see how it goes, but if this were a counter trend rally, it would had halted at the .382 retracement level at SPX 2692...and we didn't.

 

Ok, so then SPX 3,000 should be next and old highs will go fast like what happened today. Tough to spot irregular flats if the B wave is 

hundreds of points higher than the top of A.

 

The general criteria for the target for a "B" wave of an irregular flat is 1.382 times the length of wave "A"....with wave "C" 1.618 times the length wave "A".

 

But since we're dealing with a parabola, one can only make the assumption based on other personality traits (P/C ratios, sentiment, divergences, etc) to determine such validity.

 

If you ask Don, it was a "C".

 

For me. the pattern does rhymes with the classic interpretation though at a faster pace (like speeding up a record from 33 rpm to 78 rpm)

 

We'll see how it goes as it this could still be part of an even larger flat (of Primary degree) where a challenge of the all time highs will be seen before another hard sell off to finish this larger degree of trend.

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 15 February 2018 - 06:20 PM.

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

Technical Watch Subscriptions

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page


#20 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 12,355 posts

Posted 15 February 2018 - 06:38 PM

 

 

SPX forming a Doji on the daily chart.  I see a ST top here.

But if SPX closes today above 2720 then it can still go higher.................
 
There is a good chance for a double top scenario, i.e. it may go up to fill the down gaps left there and retrieve the entire loss before anything.
 
So the big question is will be a straight up scenario similar to the move in January or are we going to see volatility with a stair step move.  Any opinion?

So far it has been straight up and this is nowadays Algo traders style.