6 replies to this topic

[hopoco]

Will SPX and VIX be range bound till March FED meeting?

 

[redfoliage2]

There is a good probability that the low may be tested again.  The market performance on Friday tells the same thing with SPX bounced back down from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

Edited by redfoliage2, 18 February 2018 - 06:57 PM.

[trioderob]

that was just profit taking before a 3 day weekend

 

watch the sky

[robo]

 

 

Some opinions/guesses below based on "data"  I say we shall see since I don't know for sure, and I'll decided ODAAT in real-time trading.

 

 

The Stock Market’s Next Move

Published  February 16, 2018 - 7:30 AM

When the market was in the midst of a vicious selloff last week, I commented to my Delta Report subscribers that the technical conditions had reached oversold levels that had only occurred (to my recollection anyway) two previous times in my 35-year career in the markets. Once was after the crash in 1987. The other time was in August 2011.

It makes sense, therefore, to go back and take a look at the market action following each of those previous two events in order to get an idea of what we may be in for this time around.

Take a look at this chart of the S&P 500 from 1987…

https://www.jeffclar...’s-next-move/

 

http://stockcharts.c...600&a=578084217

The SKI system and the stock markets next move.

 

 

In conclusion

SKI is uber-bearish and such bearishness may include the rare participation of the general stock market. 

 

Special SKI Report #199
MAJOR Gold Stock Update

 

 

 

In conclusion

SKI is uber-bearish and such bearishness may include the rare participation of the general stock market. Gold bullion is more perplexing: It has probably held up as a “safe-haven” asset and could even do the extremely rare rise even as the stocks decline (doubtful due to rarity, but possible). The prediction is that USERX will soon decline to below the December 2016 low of 6.42 and could even challenge the January 2016 multi-year low. And yet, the pattern is still just “corrective” from the 2016 bull market and Jeff fully expects a massive rise when the decline completes.

So, I hope that this saves you money and pain. How many analysts are willing to make this type of prediction? SINCE THERE IS NO 100% CERTAINTY, THE NICE THING IS THAT ANY CLOSE OVER USERX 7.24 WILL INVALIDATE THIS BEARISH FORECAST, and can be used as the stop-loss for continuing or new short positions. But SKI still would not turn bullish. And I hope (of-course) that you’ll join SKI if/as the gold stocks decline (not after they’ve risen) because I do not intend to provide this type of timely and specific information at the expected major bottom.

 

Best Wishes, Jeff

 

http://www.321gold.c...rn/current.html

[robo]

A SKI data chart. 

 

Have a nice day and good trading next week.

 

Edited by robo, 19 February 2018 - 10:45 AM.

[hopoco]

Right after 1987 crash FED chairman Greenspan lowered interest rate twice. It boosted the stock market significantly. The markets went higher than the pre-crash level the end of the same year. But what the FED can do now, only increase interest rate.

[redfoliage2]

VIX going up around 20 and internals in the sink.  This looks a setup for a gap down tomorrow..................