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Bull Trap?

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#1 blustar

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 09:18 AM

The rally into early Monday, February 26, 2018 is no surprise to me.  The charts below were written over the weekend suggesting follow through buying into early Monday at or above SPX 2754 and then a sudden fast reversal down below the 2532 area.

 

I’ve seen this e-wave pattern before following a wxy W Wave where Wave X sees an irregular topping pattern (coming out of a bull flag formation) catching the bulls by surprise and leading to huge down move.

 

Astro-wise we have a Bradley Geo turn due February 25 along with Mars conjunct Vesta.  According to Bill Meridian, the stock market can be timed using the Mars/Vesta cycle. Over at http://trading-daze.blogspot.com, there is a chart that shows the high correlation between the Mars/Vesta conjunction and sell-offs that follow.  Also mentioned, is the 24 calendar day turn due on Feb 24. Turns on weekend ends tend to fulfill the following trading day and that is today.

 

The point is, the astro projections fit my E-wave and Gann projections.  The next Hurst/Gann cycle low is due ideally on March 5/6. March 1 is an 8 TD top plus it is a 34 calendar day Fibonnacci turn.  Astro-wise we have a Venus/Jupiter trine due on the first of March along with Mercury/Venus trine on the second of March a “B” Wave bounce. Trines suggest topping action around those dates.

 

The next helio Bradley turn is due on February 28, suggesting an A Wave possible low.  Seasonally, late February is notorious for weakness and the first of the month notorious for buying. The actual 20 week low following the 18 month low last August occurred on December 29th, suggesting a low due in May.

The 10 week component is due between TD (trading day) 43 and TD 57.  March 5 is TD 43.

The money flow chart shows decreasing volume on rallies and increasing volume on sell-offs since the February 9 low.  This is sign that we have more of a short covering rally right here than true long buying. The house is being built on cards.  Momentum will not justify a new high above SPX 2754. What may be the cause, I do not know, but I surmise it may be related primarily to interest rate worries.

 

The mining shares are being taken down with the stock market while gold is hanging in there strongly as a hedge against adversity.  I suspect this relationship will continue.

 

 



#2 blustar

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 10:31 AM

Sorry, I meant to wriite Mercury/Jupiter trine on Friday.  We may see the top early Friday.



#3 cycletimer

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 12:41 PM

Next stop is 2800
My early retirement journey (blog): https://firechecklist.net/

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#4 q4wer

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 01:41 PM

merriman has a different explanation for the March stars. Given the market behavior so far, I think it is highly possible, the bottom is past and new high is ahead and very soon.  The gap near spx high will be closed as soon as in a week or two.



#5 q4wer

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 01:44 PM

qqq is leading,

 

$tnx and tlt need to stablize, supporting the new high



#6 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 26 February 2018 - 05:54 PM

q4wer:   I agree we are now in a strong upside potential again that should get us to new highs a beyond...    I do currently have us as overbought since New Car and Home Sales have not been strong and we have a high PE in relation, but momentum should take us higher, and we can just hope that economic numbers will improve again as well to justify the high PE....



#7 blustar

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 05:29 PM

The Mars/Vesta conjunction just took the market down today.  The next low should be the ten week around March 9/12.  I see minimum 2468 SPX.



#8 kinga200

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 05:43 PM

The Mars/Vesta conjunction just took the market down today.  The next low should be the ten week around March 9/12.  I see minimum 2468 SPX.

I agree.



#9 q4wer

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Posted 28 February 2018 - 12:27 AM

Have to be out on watch,  3/13 can be the low, and also can be the high.  with today's down move, we might believe 3/13 is a low, but too many people anticipate this crush.  Maybe the bears are right this time.



#10 blustar

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Posted 01 March 2018 - 10:58 AM

A test of the 200 day ma near the 2560's could be the target







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