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Stock rally could depend on whether Powell is hands-off on policy for now


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 07:43 AM

That darn 10-yr Treasury yield!  Want it to stay below 2.95% for the next week or so (it's at 2.875% now)

 

Meanwhile, in the fraudCoin fantasy world:  Self-proclaimed bitcoin 'creator' sued for $10bn

 

Stock rally could depend on whether Powell is hands-off on policy for now
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell makes his first major appearance as head of the Federal Reserve before the House Finance Committee.
  • What Powell says during the Fed chair's semi-annual economic testimony could help decide whether stocks continue to rally, break out of a band of resistance and head toward new highs.
  • Powell is not expected to rock the markets, but traders are watching to see how he handles Congress and whether he can walk the fine line of not sounding too hawkish or too dovish.
US Treasury yields rise prior to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony
  • Jerome Powell is set to address Congress on Tuesday, with the recently-appointed Fed chair expected to shed light on the current state of the U.S. economy and monetary policy.
  • The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $22 billion in 52-week bills and $60 billion in four-week bills.

https://www.cnbc.com...cy-for-now.html



#2 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 11:18 AM

Or is it ???

 

https://twitter.com/...502680762003458


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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 11:28 AM

WOW! 

A Tuesday Massacre - fire Mueller, AG and deputy AG ??

Kelly gone??

Or he has decided to resign for health reasons? 



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 11:31 AM

10-yr Treasury jumps 5 basis points

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com...rate-hikes.html

https://www.cnbc.com...rate-hikes.html



#5 Data

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 11:50 AM

If the Fed only raised two times this year, a 3 percent 10-year yield would be at the very low end of the spread.  It is more likely to be 3.5 to 4.0 percent by the end of the year, and perhaps higher.



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 12:48 PM

Since the increase in BOND YIELDS is inevitable and Powell indicated fear of equity decline will not deter interest rate hikes then 

the FED will prefer the market digest and assimilate this at or above S&P 2780, 3% from the record highs, than at S&P 2500 or lower. A decline of 300 S%P points at or above S&P 2780 is far easier to deal with than such  decline from S&P 2500.

The FED does not want to be trapped into raising interest rates in a declining stock market. 

 

But, the FED wants a gradual increase - stealthily - rather than the relatively rapid increases recently. The 10-yr Treasury has jumped 6 basis points today, to 2.917% as of 12:46 EST

 

Also, FED Chair Powell does not want to be in the unenviable position of AG Sessions who has been mercilessly criticized by Trump. If stocks decline while the FED is raising rates, Powell will feel the wrath of Trump and the GOP, and even be fired by Trump.



#7 Data

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 03:16 PM

The banks have to make a market for the debt.   They eventually have to sell the debt they're stuck with.

 

This market sells off on each new supply data point.   There is one today and one tomorrow.



#8 MaryAM

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Posted 27 February 2018 - 03:21 PM

Yet the FED is still active in quantitative easing by continuing to buy junk mortgage backed securities - I say junk because I don't care what government agency is insuring them - many are still junk because they are not auditing the transactions before they insure them.