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Elevated Risk of a Turn Friday the 2nd


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 01 March 2018 - 06:21 PM

According to my system the next risk window for a market turn is tomorrow, Friday the 2nd of March. 

 

That stuck-on-the-tarmac black swan I mentioned in my last post may have just gotten airborne thanks to the POTUS making noise about a trade war.  Whether the black swan has enough stamina to reach Wall Street will probably depend on how the various  trading players react to the shot across their bow.  Even though this bird does have a history of crashing not soon after take off for years now, the potential for a trade war has got to ruffle its feathers.  Just when I thought the FED would do the heavy lifting, in comes the POTUS to maybe finally get the black bird off the ground. 

 

I suspect that we'll know for sure if it is a real deal black swan or just another short lived, cooked goose correction by the end of the next risk window at the end of next week.  My money's on it crashing in the East River before ever reaching Wall Street, but as I've mentioned before, my crystal ball is seriously cracked. 

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 Douglas

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Posted 02 March 2018 - 04:04 AM

Rereading my post I realize that I wasn't clear about the risk window on Friday. The market has been falling the last few days since the previous risk window on Feb 26-27, so in the new risk window on Friday the 2nd there is an elevated risk that a turn up will occur.   All the black swan rabble was an acknowledgement that should this turn up  fail, the hole below could be considerable if a trade war is on.  

 

Regards,

Douglas