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Shades of 1987 in the Dow’s 500-Point Drop

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#1 dTraderB



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Posted 01 March 2018 - 07:55 PM

Maybe, but after the 3-day 1,000 plus DOW drop, I think there will be a bounce to at least S&P 2730/35.
This from Barron's: 


Shades of 1987 in the Dow’s 500-Point Drop
Randall Forsyth
Updated March 1, 2018 3:54 p.m. ET

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 500 points, Gluskin Sheff's chief economist David Rosenberg neatly sums up in a tweet the parallels from just over three decades ago:

Front page of the Philadelphia Inquirer on Oct. 20, 1987. ILLUSTRATION: GETTY IMAGES

"Hmmm. Let's see. Tariffs. Sharp bond selloff. Weak dollar policy. Massive twin deficits. New Fed chairman. Cyclical inflationary pressures. Overvalued stock markets. Heightened volatility. Sounds eerily familiar (from someone who started his career on October 19th, 1987!)."

Luckily, there are some differences between then and now. Bond yields are much lower, with the 30-year Treasury just over 3%, while the long bond got up to 10% in the runup to Black Monday. Price/earnings multiples are less challenging, at about 18 times expected earnings on the S&P 500, versus north of 20 times back in 1987.

But anybody who claims "this time is different" would do well to remember history--because it rarely is.

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